Disclaimer

I will not be responsible for any material that is found on this site or at the end of links that I may post on this blog site. Mistakes may happen from time to time. URLS and domains may change hands. If you need financial advice or someone to hold your hand while you make the trade, please find another site.

Because the information on this blog are based on my personal opinion and gosh I am so fucking opinionated, it should NOT be considered professional financial investment advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional, preferably both and in that order. My thoughts and opinions will also change from time to time as I learn and accumulate more knowledge,or my meds wear out, or my post coital euphoria passes.

Feel free to comment on my ideas or ask questions in the comments section for the blog entries. Please remember that this is a blog, and you do not need to agree with everything or anything I write (except I am very needy when it comes to my looks...so you have to say nice things). I reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason (abusive, profane, rude, etc.) so please keep the comments polite, unless you are criticising Gold Bugs...in which case go wild....doggie style.

This site is also dedicated to preventing small traders from having their accounts go supernova by listening to Gary Savage. To read more about him, please browse through the posts and also see http://smartmoneytrackerpremium-exposed.com/


Monday, March 27, 2017

Gold Bugs are idiots because they listen to people like Egon von Greyerz

High up on the dumbasses that people cite when they explain how the system is going to collapse, is this numbnut.

Egon von Greyerz.


Here is the screenshot from King World News latest interview.





 Sounds Legit. But we have been teetering for some time. 





Ok about a couple of years.


Ok seriously? We have been on the edge for so long? That must take some serious balance. 



 This is some slow motion train wreck.







Same guy above, though you cannot see his name. So this is a long incubation period????


You have got to be shitting me.






GARY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I found your long lost twin!!!!!!!!!!!
He is in in Switzerland!!!!!!!!!!




Sunday, March 26, 2017

Now for something totally fucking different

Considering that I have peeps here that are struggling with health issues, I decided to take a completely different turn this weekend.  Since I love to research, I have researched supplements as well. I have found some interesting stuff that I thought I would share.



First off, I am not a doctor. Second there is absolutely no monetary gain associated with what I am writing below. My hope is that people will get more curious about this and actually use this to find supplements that work rather than flushing money down the toilet.  Finally, do your own due diligence.

We often hear, this is good and that is bad for your health. But what really works?
This is a graph from Pubmed.Gov, showing the results of tens of thousands of actual clinical trials. It shows which supplements work and which are well…not proven as yet.  It is not an all comprehensive list but it is a lot of useful data. 






Here is the link to the infographic



Right at the top of that list is Selenium. While listed for decreasing symptoms of chemotherapy, there is also an armada of research on Selenium as a preventative agent against cancer and as strong adjunct to chemotherapy. 



Here is some nice info on the subject with the actual research papers you can read for yourself.
A 2011 meta-analysis of nine randomized controlled clinical trials including 152,538 participants established that selenium supplementation cut risk for all cancers by 24%. The cancer-preventive effect rose to 36% in people with low baseline selenium levels.
Lee EH, Myung SK, Jeon YJ, et al. Effects of selenium supplements on cancer prevention: Meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. Nutr Cancer. 2011 Oct 17.

Multiple studies reveal that low selenium levels in the blood, hair, or nail clippings are associated with a two to threefold increase in overall cancer risk. For specific tumors such as thyroid cancer, the risk rises to nearly 8-fold. Selenium insufficiencies are now known to increase risk of cancers of the bladder, lung, stomach, esophagus, and liver.

Rayman MP. Selenium in cancer prevention: a review of the evidence and mechanism of action. Proc Nutr Soc. 2005 Nov;64(4):527-42.


There are tons more research papers out there and while a couple of papers have said that is no impact, over 100 support that selenium is a very vital mineral to protect against cancer.

Have a wonderful weekend. 

The 4 strongest arguments for a big bear market (and why all are wrong) Part 1

Valuation by Shiller PE:
This is one of the strongest arguments for a bear market. The CAPE or Shiller P/E ratio which calculates the  P/E ratio by taking the inflation adjusted earnings over the last decade, is currently around 30 (this is an older chart but it shows fantastic info so I used it).  Periods when CAPE was over 22 are shaded. What it does show is that in general; stocks have a hard time making much progress when CAPE is that high.


Periods of elevated CAPE are from
1986 to 1910
1929-1950
1968 to 1982
and 1996 to virtually all the way to today with a brief interlude in between.
Also this chart is the total return index as in the value of investment with dividends reinvested. This shows that in spite of dividends reinvested, the total return is definitely weaker in those periods.

But anyone using CAPE alone is missing the big picture. As the second chart shows, stocks have returned on average 1% after inflation even during elevated CAPE. 


But the range is astronomical. If you expect 4% inflation average over the next 10 years, your total nominal returns on stock could be a -10% to 120%. You could certainly lock in a guaranteed 27% in a 10 year bond for part of the portfolio and current yield jump certainly makes bonds a lot more appealing than they were before.
By itself CAPE/Shiller P/E suggest that the markets will likely not make large inflation adjusted headway in the years to come. But the range is so huge that it is next to useless as a forecasting tool and certainly no guarantee that the bull market is ending.

Stocks will still beat bonds (most likely) if we have moderate to high inflation.
Shiller P/E is the reason though that I am heavily underweight US in my portfolio and have all my long term holdings in REITS and Energy. Both sectors are heavily out of favour and many REITS where I have the lion’s share of the portfolio are trading at single digit multiples.  


To be continued....

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

YRAG Inverse Gary Savage ETF listed!!!!


NASDAQ today listed a new etf YRAG. This etf basically aims to replicate 300% of the inverse performance of GARY SAVAGE. Since Savage frequently dabbles in 3x etf, you get up to 9x positive returns. Over the past 7 years YRAG would have been up 70,000% with no negative periods. Past performance IS a guarantee of future performance in this case.

To understand this ETF better please see Glossary below.


Glossary
1)    Dumb-money: Everyone except Gary Savage

2)  Smart-Money: Gary Savage. Smart-Money accumulates positions often decades ahead of the up-move.

3)   Red-Arrows: Shows the most likely direction the shown stock/etf/Commodity will NOT take

4)   Trial Offer: A $1-$10 special that will land up costing subscribers 10,000 times as much.

5)    Bubble Phase: When subscribers get gas due to indigestion following large losses.

6)    Mania Phase: Follows shortly after when Gary gets the occasional call right.

7)    Baby Bull: When Gary lays it on thick, but not too thick.

8)    Retail: The ones that Gary lures in.

9)   Bankers: The ones that actually make money. They neutralize every good move that Gary makes. It is estimated that Gary would be worth 73 Quadrillion if not for the bankers.

10) Model Portfolio: What the returns would have been if Gary actually lived in Squirrel Pant pressing land.

11) Terminating Model Portfolio: An event that happens at least once in 3 months usually on a weekend. Model portfolios are reactivated within 3 weeks or 12 blowjobs, whichever comes (pun intended) first. 

12)  Stops: Retroactively decided prices where Gary felt it best to to have exited in hindsight. 

13)  Undercut: Second chance to offer “Trial Offer” to “Retail”.

14)  Old Turkey: A haggled subscriber who is usually 90-99% underwater on his 3X ETF purchase.

15) PPTA group of individuals who spend every moment of their lives keeping the stock market from going down and take a break only when Gary goes long leveraged SPY products.

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

March 22, 2017-Gary Savage is still an idiot

Just felt like adding that to the title, although the post has nothing to do with it.
Some blasts from the past all from KING WORLD NEWS..please note the dates.  


1) I swear I thought it was an advertisement for Tylenol. 

"Whatever time zone you are in.....for fast rapid acting relief...Trust Tylenol"





2) Not sure about soar but that definitely got a rise out of me. 
John Ing is hardly a legend...in fact the only word i can attribute to him right now is Boob. 






3) Did we witness...hey wait a second...



I know this guy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!@@@@@@@@@



Monday, March 20, 2017

Baby Bull: How one man spotted 60 of the last zero bull markets: Part 5

Parts 1-4 can be found in the archives.

Part5: TVIX edition.
So before Gary was sure that the Fed had his back and ass, Gary was a little more sceptical on the bull market. He wanted to make a killing by buying leveraged VIX products, which he expected to go up 300% plus. Legend has it that many subscribers warned him of the decay but Gary would not be fazed. He had Titanium balls and a pliant ass.

In true Gary style he bought TVIX on March 6th

Gary's blog was a lot nastier looking back in the day and the only way to read it was to actually highlight the text.
Click images for larger view




Summary: Gary was unfazed by a small drawdown in VIX. He knew  a stock market crash was coming (No Fed and Bankers back in the day) and he thought way before the decay he would make 300% in TVIX. He added that the chances of losing 50% on this trade were "pretty slim". I shit you not. 

So what happened?

Gary's purchase and sale are marked (Sidebar: Annotating charts with a mouse for a pen sucks ass). 


Yep 64% loss in 14 trading days. Followed by an exit. 

But wait! There is more!
You would think that Gary would be apologetic as hell and spend his time alternating between ass kissing and ball fondling, OK he does that anyway...but still.

Nope.
Gary instead took the opportunity just after his big fuck up, to impart a few more lessons on his flock.  Yep. 


Yeah Gary. Thanks. We wouldn't want to do anything stupid. 

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Weekend Wrap By BGINVESTOR: Part Trois

SIdebar: After months of ignoring the truths being brought to light by this blog, SMT-Exposed and even Avi Gilburt, Mr. Gary Savage decided to ask us to give him credit for his winning trades. That is the equivalent of a doctor that kills a family member due to malpractice, reminding you that months back he administered a Flu shot to said family member. 

Gary, you are reckless, dangerous, arrogant and deceitful. You want me to stop you panzy? Ass hurting too badly?  Fine.
2)    Put it up on your premium and free blog for 2 weeks
3)   Annotate it clearly to explain how and when you sent the message to sell JNUG, rather than keep adding.  Explain how you closed trades on the weekend, where the losses went. 

4)    If your explanations are logical and truthful, I will stop completely. 



Weekend wrap!   Bginvestor

What can I say, so much entertainment this week!   Why go to the movies, when you can see “Gary the gold Guru” trying to convince the gold bugs to be herded into the equity markets! 

UPRO – Daily
Admittedly, I think Gary mentioned that he was trying to catch the top of the daily cycle.  But, cycle analysis suggests that the end of this daily cycle starts into the intermediate cycle low.   I think he’s hoping the price will hit the moon first.  I don’t know, we shall see!

$VIX – daily
The VIX shows just how crazy the SM markets are right now.  Price has been in the channel for months.  I’ll bet the complacency ends sooner than later.                  DUCK: The spike should be shorted by VXX. Look at 1990’s VIX stayed low for very long periods of time.



DIA – daily
I’m going to be patient and wait for a decent correction.  This does not scream low risk right now, you know what I mean?  Besides, most of the SM sectors are clearly over bought and profits should be taken before they are taken from you.


VNQ – daily
One exception is REITS; they got pounded for a few weeks and one of the few sectors that are over sold..   VNQ bounced off a well-defined support at FOMC..
I’m already in baby!
DUCK: Everyone here knows how I feel about REITS. 



CHN – daily
This is just a reminder that there are ETFs other than the metal sector that kick ass!
DUCK: China leads the commodity markets quite often. 


ULE – daily
I missed several opportunities this week.  This is one of them.   I noticed that bullish pattern early on, but didn’t pull the trigger. 
The downward trend has been broken.  I repeat, the down ward trend line has been broken.  ;)
DUCK: 2 ECB members talked about rate hikes. Just a reminder, in 2008, USD and EURO interest rates were about the same and the Euro was at 1.60. I think we will hit 1.20 easy this year. 

$USDJPY – daily
We’ll see if there’s enough steam to push through supports next week..



GDXJ – daily
Obviously, there was going to be a breakout!   I told you. Mission accomplished.  ;)




GDXJ – daily
Oh boy, I hope price hits that support line.   I have the 3X gun off of safety and ready to pull the trigger.
I bought in low like a lot of you, but could not resist capturing the profits from the vertical move.  So far, it worked out very well.   I’m up over 15% in my account just for this week alone.
By the way, Mark showed me a chart that suggests there’s no way price is going to get down there!   And he may be right. 
So, if you want to go long, I suggest scaling in, seriously.

GS – daily
Goldman got kicked in the sac today!  Is this an early sign of market weakness?   hmmmm
DUCK: I am short this one with av average price $248.50 adjusted for puts and calls sold. I round tripped this in spectacular style as it fell right after I went short, but i have still not covered. If TLT explodes higher GS will definitely meet its 200 moving average which is more than $50 lower. 


UGAZ – daily
Today’s trade was going long..  I missed it!
I find it interesting that the support line got tagged like 7 times!   I plan to use that to my advantage.



LABU – daily
Very interesting chart!
There was $$ to be made in biotech this week.


NUGT -  daily
Damn, that does look bullish! Let’s see what happens next week.


That’s it for me!   Hope some of the charts were somewhat interesting..  Let’s keep up the discussions next week.  Cheers!

Thursday, March 16, 2017

Gary the little lamb

Gary Savage, of the Smart Money Tracker blog, with his astounding stupidity has made me laugh so hard that I feel like a have pulled at least 4 muscles. What amazes me more is that people are still subscribing to him.
Anyway, my only comment about the market:
A freak-out if it happens, should be bought. Most likely it will be (if it happens) over 1st Quarter GDP.
And here is why.  
Hat Tip to Jeroen Blokland.



And Maxdog, Spanky is not welcome here. Neither is any other Permabear/Doomer/Gold Bug. Spanky fit all 3 (usually people are all 3, although those idiots at THEAUTOMATICEARTH.COM fit only the first 2). 

Please do not invite him…yeah it is like the vampire principle. 

Finally since we do not just inform...we entertain.....

Thanks to LSPOONER for superb contribution and helping me past sticking points.

GOLDBUGSPRAY PRESENTS!!!!!!
  
                                                    Gary the little lamb 



A poem by DUCKWHOROCKS & LSPOONER 

                                          

Gary was a little lamb,
Who was fleeced white as snow.
he got chased out of metals,
so he bought UPRO...
The Gold bull will make us rich he said
The Fed has overplayed their hand

But it is 7 years later
and a few dollars less.
Entering at the top
oh what a mess!

He keeps using his cycles,
They were not supposed to fail,
But the only bottoms he is catching
Belong to strippers at Chippendales!