Disclaimer

I will not be responsible for any material that is found on this site or at the end of links that I may post on this blog site. Mistakes may happen from time to time. URLS and domains may change hands. If you need financial advice or someone to hold your hand while you make the trade, please find another site.

Because the information on this blog are based on my personal opinion and gosh I am so fucking opinionated, it should NOT be considered professional financial investment advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional, preferably both and in that order. My thoughts and opinions will also change from time to time as I learn and accumulate more knowledge,or my meds wear out, or my post coital euphoria passes.

Feel free to comment on my ideas or ask questions in the comments section for the blog entries. Please remember that this is a blog, and you do not need to agree with everything or anything I write (except I am very needy when it comes to my looks...so you have to say nice things). I reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason (abusive, profane, rude, etc.) so please keep the comments polite, unless you are criticising Gold Bugs...in which case go wild....doggie style.

This site is also dedicated to preventing small traders from having their accounts go supernova by listening to Gary Savage. To read more about him, please browse through the posts and also see http://smartmoneytrackerpremium-exposed.com/


Friday, April 21, 2017

The real returns of Gary Savage

It is truly a wonder that in this age of search engines, people are still, still subscribing that to that idiot.


Or maybe it is because he lacks them (subscribers) that he makes desperate comments like these.



He is referencing his “Leveraged Metals portfolio.” We have seen that numerous times over the past few years he has “reset” this portfolio because once you get to -80% you are never gonna really come back. But I decided to calculate what the real returns would be if he just included one set of trades which I have documented before. His infamous JNUG/NUGT trade in July 2016.
A full blowjob by blowjob account can be found in my finest work here.

Briefly recapping, 

Gary bought, JNUG and NUGT and repeatedly told his subs NOT TO SELL and then terminated the model portfolio ON A HOLIDAY.






Yet that is the exact time he restarted his portfolio which he claims is up 154% today!
Wow a clean slate.

Below is his spreadsheet. He has no open trades so this is all past information. I am not disclosing his "trade secrets", although If I were to guess his trade secrets they probably would read something like
a) Come up with 15 trading rules.
b) Ignore them at every chance you get.
c) Criticize all my subs for doing the same.
d) Blame every failed trade on the bankers.


Note he started with a round number of $150,000. So Gary is implying...based on his final number that all his trades before that had a nice exact plus 50% return. 

He started initially with $100,000, at December 27 it was $150,000 and now it is $254,353 for a 154% return. Please click on image for larger view. I could not upload as a spreadsheet as it looked terrible. 




So I added one more thing at the bottom. We have ample evidence that he bought NUGT and JNUG in July and closed them in late December. I used some basic math to figure

1)    how much his starting portfolio had to be to land with $150,000 after those trades
2)    His ACTUAL (NOT HIS FUCK FANTASY) returns to date.

I shit you not….his starting portfolio would have to be
$666,666.
If you ever needed a divine sign not to listen to this moron please use this.

Sidebar: I recently watched “The Omen” and it was fucking awesome!!!!!!!

And his actual returns          NEGATIVE 61.85%






Two year running total? You just left out your biggest disaster and your spreadsheet starts 4 months back you fuckwad!! 

Gary such level of deception should get you in Jail. I am not kidding bro. Deletion of such facts and awful repeated lying and misrepresentation is not covered under your “Gary Savage LLC is not responsible” bullshit clauses. 

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Gary You Delusional Fuck.

After calling for $10,000 Gold, $1,000 JNUG and $500 Silver, Gary decided that the best way to leverage his returns in the bull market was to go….

Wait for it……

LONG DUST.
And SHORT GDX.

Yep he has gone short the Precious Metal sector.

While, I personally think he has a fair chance of making money on this ( I am currently short NUGT), the splendid irony of this Dickwad’s constant contradictions is permeating through his subscriber base.







Yeah Ralph but what you are saying only makes sense if you have at least a high double digit IQ. But don't worry. Gary is right behind the banksters bottoms.



And in the rare chance you blame Gary for this short trade gone bad....Please view the other side of the mouth talking.

So remember, Gary is always right. He always makes money. Why else would he begging for $500 annual subscription fees? True sign of a millionaire.





Sunday, April 9, 2017

Baby Bull: How one man spotted 60 of the last zero bull markets: Part 6


 Parts 1-5 can be read through the archives.

ERX edition:
Gary’s love affair with 3X has extended pretty much across the entire genre. Like an aging porn princess that tries more and more creative stunts to stay in business, Gary pulled out all the stops (pun intended) to make money in the “Energy Portfolio”.

I mean where else can you get a service that helps you lose money in every fucking asset class? 
So after a few trades, that ended in a net loss (Gary alludes to this himself in the first line), Gary tried his luck again in ERX the 3X leveraged energy fund in 2015.





Adding that he was going to be pissed....
Fuck even before he could complete that thought....
Less than 1 hour later!


Those damn bankers!!!!!!!!!!!!
Working overtime to cause Gary to lose money. I mean seriously, if all these multimillionaires who run the world, don't spend every waking minute spoiling Gary's trades, how will they ever get satisfaction?

But Gary was going to be back. He got back in a slightly higher price ($35.22 after being stopped at $32.85)



He was not going to be stopped out now. 
Sidebar: "Nothing's gonna stop us out now." A lesser known Starship Song.

Just in time for a nice smooth 60% decline.
But on Jan 6th with ERX around $20, down about 40% from Gary;s buy point....
Gary Majestically added

"It's too early to buy ERX". The irony was not lost on one subscriber. 


But Gary was strong. Gary took the opportunity of a 50% drawdown to reiterate that he only sells at intermediate tops. 

Gary hung around on this till a whole 9 months later when..he finally took a loss. 
To his credit it was a smaller loss than we would have expected. But still his "Energy portfolio was down 30% assuming Gary knew any math. 





But a lot can change in 30 days  as 30 days is a long time in Garyland....
In the next 30 days, 

Gary Debated.
Gary Bought.
Gary Sold.
Gary promised to never trade it again.



Which brings us full circle to his current trade, where Gary took the opportunity to remind us common folks, what we were missing out by NOT having a subscription.




Yep real time trades....Worth every penny Gary.

Monday, April 3, 2017

Heads ...Gary wins $400.....Tails... he loses nothing.

So after jacking fees for his pile of cow dung from $200 to $500, Gary is offering $100 “off” this price.
Ha, wonders never cease.

So what is happening is

"You did not enjoy that awesome 85% loss on JNUG which I closed out on the weekend? No? Ok, how about I make it better for you by jacking up the price by 150%. How does that sound? And just for good fun I will throw in the Quest portfolio which ALSO goes to zero over the next 3 months. How does that sound? We cool?
Great! "

A few weeks later
"I have since then got everything wrong (including the math on how portfolio returns should be calculated), so let me lower the price by $100. How does THAT sound?"



Gary’s offer is designed for the ignorant among you, who are not aware of his awesome track record.
Please read the 7 posts below and if you still feel like subscribing then I cannot help you.


Update:

I have been in communication with Gary and coaxed him to improve his offer.
I suggested he keep the price $400 for a one year membership.
However, 
If it loses money, he pays you $400 back and an additional $400 of his own money. Since he is a millionaire and I am thinking less than 1 in Billion are stupid enough to fall for this gimmick at this point with SMT-exposed and me running at full steam, at most he will be out $2,800.

After lot of talk, some ass grabbing, a hasty handjob, a little uncomfortable silence and 4 minutes of guilt, we agreed to allow subscribers to benefit.

To qualify for this, enter any of the codes below when you subscribe

“Blow-Me”

“Titanium Balls”

“Chippendales”

If the code don't fit, just lube the sides and try again...gently.

Sunday, April 2, 2017

Now for something totally fucking different

Considering that I have peeps here that are struggling with health issues, I decided to take a completely different turn this weekend.  Since I love to research, I have researched supplements as well. I have found some interesting stuff that I thought I would share.



First off, I am not a doctor. Second there is absolutely no monetary gain associated with what I am writing below. My hope is that people will get more curious about this and actually use this to find supplements that work rather than flushing money down the toilet.  Finally, do your own due diligence.

We often hear, this is good and that is bad for your health. But what really works?
This is a graph from Pubmed.Gov, showing the results of tens of thousands of actual clinical trials. It shows which supplements work and which are well…not proven as yet.  It is not an all comprehensive list but it is a lot of useful data. 






Here is the link to the infographic



Right at the top of that list is Selenium. While listed for decreasing symptoms of chemotherapy, there is also an armada of research on Selenium as a preventative agent against cancer and as strong adjunct to chemotherapy. 



Here is some nice info on the subject with the actual research papers you can read for yourself.
A 2011 meta-analysis of nine randomized controlled clinical trials including 152,538 participants established that selenium supplementation cut risk for all cancers by 24%. The cancer-preventive effect rose to 36% in people with low baseline selenium levels.
Lee EH, Myung SK, Jeon YJ, et al. Effects of selenium supplements on cancer prevention: Meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. Nutr Cancer. 2011 Oct 17.

Multiple studies reveal that low selenium levels in the blood, hair, or nail clippings are associated with a two to threefold increase in overall cancer risk. For specific tumors such as thyroid cancer, the risk rises to nearly 8-fold. Selenium insufficiencies are now known to increase risk of cancers of the bladder, lung, stomach, esophagus, and liver.

Rayman MP. Selenium in cancer prevention: a review of the evidence and mechanism of action. Proc Nutr Soc. 2005 Nov;64(4):527-42.


There are tons more research papers out there and while a couple of papers have said that is no impact, over 100 support that selenium is a very vital mineral to protect against cancer.

Have a wonderful weekend. 

Thursday, March 30, 2017

Gary probably failed grade 6...Multiple times.Part 2.

Part 1 which was posted on January 9th 2017, can be read here.
The crux of the argument here is that Gary probably has a sub-80 IQ to say such crap.


The specifics are that highly volatile ETFs are very dangerous for Buy and Hold investors. I have explained in part 1 that Gary’s $500-$1,000 target are so out of whack with reality that subscribing to Gary for his wisdom is about as useful as volunteering for 32 optional root canals.



Let’s revisit what happened since Part 1. 

GDXJ down 0.6% since Jan 9th.
Implied Change in JNUG Negative 1.8%.

Actual change in JNUG since Jan 9th. NEGATIVE 20.70%.

In 3 months JNUG has underperformed its “expected” (and I use the word expected loosely as anyone observing these would not expect anything like this) benchmark by 19% in 3 months or at annualized rate of over 70%.

Sounds far-fetched? One-off? Let’s look another new rolling 12 month return.
GDXJ up 38% in the last 12 months.

Implied 3X move in JNUG would be UP 114%.


Actual change in JNUG. NEGATIVE 10%.
Underperformance of 120% compared to “expected”.




True Gary. None of us will make any of those gains because they will not exist.
But I and others will continue to rub this in your face till JNUG goes to my target of $0 in the next 5 years.  

Monday, March 27, 2017

Gold Bugs are idiots because they listen to people like Egon von Greyerz

High up on the dumbasses that people cite when they explain how the system is going to collapse, is this numbnut.

Egon von Greyerz.


Here is the screenshot from King World News latest interview.





 Sounds Legit. But we have been teetering for some time. 





Ok about a couple of years.


Ok seriously? We have been on the edge for so long? That must take some serious balance. 



 This is some slow motion train wreck.







Same guy above, though you cannot see his name. So this is a long incubation period????


You have got to be shitting me.






GARY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I found your long lost twin!!!!!!!!!!!
He is in in Switzerland!!!!!!!!!!




Sunday, March 26, 2017

The 4 strongest arguments for a big bear market (and why all are wrong) Part 1

Valuation by Shiller PE:
This is one of the strongest arguments for a bear market. The CAPE or Shiller P/E ratio which calculates the  P/E ratio by taking the inflation adjusted earnings over the last decade, is currently around 30 (this is an older chart but it shows fantastic info so I used it).  Periods when CAPE was over 22 are shaded. What it does show is that in general; stocks have a hard time making much progress when CAPE is that high.


Periods of elevated CAPE are from
1986 to 1910
1929-1950
1968 to 1982
and 1996 to virtually all the way to today with a brief interlude in between.
Also this chart is the total return index as in the value of investment with dividends reinvested. This shows that in spite of dividends reinvested, the total return is definitely weaker in those periods.

But anyone using CAPE alone is missing the big picture. As the second chart shows, stocks have returned on average 1% after inflation even during elevated CAPE. 


But the range is astronomical. If you expect 4% inflation average over the next 10 years, your total nominal returns on stock could be a -10% to 120%. You could certainly lock in a guaranteed 27% in a 10 year bond for part of the portfolio and current yield jump certainly makes bonds a lot more appealing than they were before.
By itself CAPE/Shiller P/E suggest that the markets will likely not make large inflation adjusted headway in the years to come. But the range is so huge that it is next to useless as a forecasting tool and certainly no guarantee that the bull market is ending.

Stocks will still beat bonds (most likely) if we have moderate to high inflation.
Shiller P/E is the reason though that I am heavily underweight US in my portfolio and have all my long term holdings in REITS and Energy. Both sectors are heavily out of favour and many REITS where I have the lion’s share of the portfolio are trading at single digit multiples.  


To be continued....