Now that is quite a stupendous claim for someone who could not trade his way out of a paper bag.
JNUG is currently around $5.50. So Gary is implying a 180
fold (18,000%) gain approximately.
Let's look at what would happened to a HUI/Gold stock 3X
fund (at $5.50) if you bought and held from November 2000 and got out right at
the peak in March 2008. 3X funds did not exist back then but I am gonna assume
they did.
Here is how the calculations were done.
1) I have focused on major rallies and declines. Minor
rallies and declines (chop/sideways) will reduce the final results even more as
you chronically increase your position at higher prices and lower them at lower
prices.
2) For every rally 3X fund rally over 100%, I have
added an additional 30% of that number, as compounding increases returns. So if
HUI rallied 60%, 3X should be up 180%. I have increased that to 180% multiplied
by 1.3=254%.
3) For every 30% plus decline, which would be 90% plus decline in the 3X fund, I have limited that to a 80% decline because compounding
works on the way down as well and hence you never lose 100% in any one decline.
4) Values and time periods are approximate (best I could see by zooming in on an annual period) from this chart.
Fund Value
| Time Frame | Initial Price | Final Price | % change | Implied change in 3X lev Fund | Final value of 3X fund relative to period start | $ 5.50 | |
| Nov 2000- May 2001 | 35 | 75 | 114.29% | 342.86% | 445.71% | $ 24.51 | |
| May 2001- Nov 2001 | 75 | 60 | -20.00% | -60.00% | 40.00% | $ 9.81 | |
| Nov 2001-May 2002 | 60 | 145 | 141.67% | 425.00% | 552.50% | $ 54.18 | |
| May 2002-July 2002 | 145 | 95 | -34.48% | -103.45% | 20.00% | $ 10.84 | |
| July 2002-Sep 2002 | 95 | 135 | 42.11% | 126.32% | 164.21% | $ 17.79 | |
| Sep 2002-Oct 2002 | 135 | 105 | -22.22% | -66.67% | 33.33% | $ 5.93 | |
| Oct 2002-Jan 2003 | 105 | 150 | 42.86% | 128.57% | 167.14% | $ 9.91 | |
| Feb 2003-Apr 2003 | 150 | 115 | -23.33% | -70.00% | 30.00% | $ 2.97 | |
| May 2003-Nov 2003 | 115 | 250 | 117.39% | 352.17% | 457.83% | $ 13.62 | |
| Nov 2003-May 2004 | 250 | 165 | -34.00% | -102.00% | 20.00% | $ 2.72 | |
| May 2004-Nov 2004 | 165 | 250 | 51.52% | 154.55% | 200.91% | $ 5.47 | |
| Nov 2004-May 2005 | 250 | 170 | -32.00% | -96.00% | 20.00% | $ 1.09 | |
| May 2005-Sep 2005 | 170 | 250 | 47.06% | 141.18% | 183.53% | $ 2.01 | |
| Sep 2005-Nov 2005 | 250 | 215 | -14.00% | -42.00% | 58.00% | $ 1.16 | |
| Nov 2005-Feb 2006 | 215 | 350 | 62.79% | 188.37% | 244.88% | $ 2.85 | |
| Feb 2006-Mar 2006 | 350 | 280 | -20.00% | -60.00% | 40.00% | $ 1.14 | |
| Mar 2006-May 2006 | 280 | 400 | 42.86% | 128.57% | 167.14% | $ 1.91 | |
| May 2006-Oct 2006 | 400 | 280 | -30.00% | -90.00% | 20.00% | $ 0.38 | |
| Oct 2006-Jul 2007 | 280 | 350 | 25.00% | 75.00% | 75.00% | $ 0.29 | |
| Jul 2007-Aug 2007 | 350 | 285 | -18.57% | -55.71% | 44.29% | $ 0.13 | |
| Aug 2007-Oct 2007 | 285 | 460 | 61.40% | 184.21% | 239.47% | $ 0.30 | |
| Oct 2007-Dec 2007 | 460 | 380 | -17.39% | -52.17% | 47.83% | $ 0.15 | |
| Dec 2007-Mar 2008 | 380 | 520 | 36.84% | 110.53% | 143.68% | $ 0.21 | |
| Final Change | -96.21% | ||||||
| Final change in Index | 1,386% | ||||||
| Expected Change in 3X | 4,157% | ||||||
| Actual change in 3X fund | -96.21% | ||||||
| Underperformance | -4,253% | ||||||
So Gary, you delusional fuck, explain to me how you will produce a JNUG value of over 1,000 when in the biggest bull market of a generation, it would have gone down to $0.20. How will it be up 5,000 fold from this number? Sooner or later someone will sue your miserable ass. You cannot hide under the disclaimer and then mislead people like this forever.
Anyone who shares this link in SMT paid comment site, will have my undying gratitude.
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