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Saturday, March 11, 2017

Weekend Wrap By BGINVESTOR: Part Deux

I have an interesting development that is going to keep me very occupied over the next few weeks. Definitely will be commenting a lot less considering where I will be and will not possibly have time to put up new posts that frequently. I may recycle some older posts dedicated to our friend as some of my finest work might have been missed by newer readers.  Real time updates on trades will also likely be out of the question. 

Now onto the weekend wrap. My comments are in red. 

Weekend wrap!   Bginvestor
This weekend wrap up is dedicated to JNUG.    “I love you and hate you”
GDXJ – Daily
Let’s get to the chart everyone wants to see.  ;)
Last week, I was expecting a bounce.  Did we get it?  Well, we got one today.  It came later than expected.   I plot elder impulse system plots for a reason.  It’s good to wait to see “blue” to reduce the negative momentum (red), before jumping in long. 
This is finally coming out of a DCL low.   The cycle is going to be a left or right translated which should complete the intermediate cycle.

If you’re clueless on direction, I hear Gary is giving away free advice. LOL

I will say this, I don’t like how the YEN is acting right here, right now.   RSI is warning me, but ignoring it for now.

$ULE -  Daily
However, I’ll bet a virtual cheesecake that the Euro will break out soon.  See chart.
So who’s more important?  Euro vs. Yen.  Someone smart please straighten me out.  lol
It is the yields buddy. Watch 10 year German-US Yield spread. It is beginning to compress. Euro is going to end the year over 1.20. There is no deflation in Europe. You can buy prime properties yielding 8% and finance it with a 1.5% mortgage for 8 years. So you can buy a 1,000,000 Euro property which gives you annual 80,000 Euro in income by putting in 200,000 in equity and getting a loan at 1.5% for the remaining 800,000. That means you make (80,000-12,000)=68,000 a year on 200,000 or 34%!! These kind of ridiculously low interest rates will create inflation beyond what the market currently expects and ECB will be in full hiking mode by year -end. 

CPG – Daily
Triple bottom.   Time to buy?  If support holds, yes. 
Big position for me average $11.22. Not selling even if support breaks. 

DIA – daily
I made a little 3.5% profit in SDOW.  Filled the gap and I was out like Christopher Reeve in a game of Twister. 

OIL – daily
There’s opportunity brewing in this chart.  What do you guys think??

PEI – daily
No response to support what so ever.   Nada.  I haven’t done cycle analysis; maybe it’s going into an ICL?  Or market does not like the potential interest rate hike and negative impacts to commercial real estate. 
PEI is trading at 50% the private market value of its real estate, or basically at the price real estate was at at the bottom in 2009. If in 12 months PEI is not 30% higher from this point at least once (or taken out), I will never post again. Bet Gary just orgasmed at that thought.

PPLT – daily
Last week, I said that I didn’t like the support that I drew.  I adjusted and price blew through that!  Major weakness and I stopped out earlier in the week.

SDOW – daily
Yes, I played it well.   Sold on the gap fill.   Yes, gaps do tend to get filled.
I wish I played the miners as good.  I royally screwed that up! 

TLT – daily
Buy support; sell resistance (thx, Mark).  
It’s time to settle down, and load up on bonds.   I don’t give a shit if Gary says the bond market is going to explode.   When the SM corrects, where’s the money going?
Bitcoin?  No, bonds..

UGAZ – daily
Mark, here’s one reason why I sold UGAZ.  See chart.  Another reason is that my cycle mentor is expecting another left translated daily cycle for natgas.
Still, I made a nice 24.5% profit.   As Doug would say, “blow me UGAZ”.

WTIC – daily
I’ll bet another piece of cheesecake that price hits my support line.  ;)

XLE – daily
I said that it might be a “little” early for XLE.   I don’t like how it didn’t respect the support line.  The support has meaning; it’s based on four points.
The relative rotational plot stills looks to be a “little” early.
I stopped out earlier this week, and trying to decide when to load up.  A safer bet is to wait till it breaks the down trend line since we just don’t know where the bottom is.  The weekly chart looks weaker on the stochastics.

And quite frankly, I’m worn out this week in trying to find bottoms.  Lol
You guys have a great weekend!  Let me know if you find some of this stuff interesting..  

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