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Thursday, March 30, 2017

Gary probably failed grade 6...Multiple times.Part 2.

Part 1 which was posted on January 9th 2017, can be read here.
The crux of the argument here is that Gary probably has a sub-80 IQ to say such crap.

The specifics are that highly volatile ETFs are very dangerous for Buy and Hold investors. I have explained in part 1 that Gary’s $500-$1,000 target are so out of whack with reality that subscribing to Gary for his wisdom is about as useful as volunteering for 32 optional root canals.

Let’s revisit what happened since Part 1. 

GDXJ down 0.6% since Jan 9th.
Implied Change in JNUG Negative 1.8%.

Actual change in JNUG since Jan 9th. NEGATIVE 20.70%.

In 3 months JNUG has underperformed its “expected” (and I use the word expected loosely as anyone observing these would not expect anything like this) benchmark by 19% in 3 months or at annualized rate of over 70%.

Sounds far-fetched? One-off? Let’s look another new rolling 12 month return.
GDXJ up 38% in the last 12 months.

Implied 3X move in JNUG would be UP 114%.

Actual change in JNUG. NEGATIVE 10%.
Underperformance of 120% compared to “expected”.

True Gary. None of us will make any of those gains because they will not exist.
But I and others will continue to rub this in your face till JNUG goes to my target of $0 in the next 5 years.  

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