Decay and the devil

Just another quick post on how decay in 3X funds destroys any chances of making money.

Since Gary’s earliest calls for a Gold bubble in november 2011, NUGT has lost a cool 99.8% of its value.

So if NUGT goes up about 500 fold from here...Gary will break even! Merry Christmas.

Baby Bull: How one man spotted 60 of the last zero bull markets: Part 5

Updated and brought to the front as many are considering shorting the VIX and this still cracks me up.


Parts 1-4 can be found in the archives.

Part5: TVIX edition.

So before Gary was sure that the Fed had his back and ass, Gary was a little more sceptical on the bull market. He wanted to make a killing by buying leveraged VIX products, which he expected to go up 300% plus. Legend has it that many subscribers warned him of the decay but Gary would not be fazed. He had Titanium balls and a pliant ass.

In true Gary style he bought TVIX on March 6^th. 

Gary's blog was a lot nastier looking back in the day and the only way to read it was to actually highlight the text.

Click images for larger view

Summary: Gary was unfazed by a small drawdown in VIX. He knew  a stock market crash was coming (No Fed and Bankers back in the day) and he thought way before the decay he would make 300% in TVIX. He added that the chances of losing 50% on this trade were "pretty slim". I shit you not. 

So what happened?

Gary's purchase and sale are marked (Sidebar: Annotating charts with a mouse for a pen sucks ass). 

Yep 64% loss in 14 trading days. Followed by an exit. 

But wait! There is more!

You would think that Gary would be apologetic as hell and spend his time alternating between ass kissing and ball fondling, OK he does that anyway...but still.

Nope.

Gary instead took the opportunity just after his big fuck up, to impart a few more lessons on his flock.  Yep. 

Yeah Gary. Thanks. We wouldn't want to do anything stupid. 

3X Funds......Gary's weapon of choice for raping newbies

Gary keeps harping on how well certain 3X Funds have done.

First, while that might be true, the results do not immediately extrapolate to another asset class such as Gold shares where volatility is whole degree higher.

Second, timing 3X purchases is very important. Just see what would have happened if you listened to Gary's unambiguous, clear as semen after 10 minutes, call to buy Gold in 2011. How much would you be down?

YRAG Inverse Gary Savage ETF listed!!!!

NASDAQ today listed a new etf YRAG. This etf basically aims to replicate 300% of the inverse performance of GARY SAVAGE. Since Savage frequently dabbles in 3x etf, you get up to 9x positive returns. Over the past 7 years YRAG would have been up 70,000% with no negative periods. Past performance IS a guarantee of future performance in this case.

To understand this ETF better please see Glossary below.

Glossary

1)    Dumb-money: Everyone except Gary Savage

2)  Smart-Money: Gary Savage. Smart-Money accumulates positions often decades ahead of the up-move.

3)   Red-Arrows: Shows the most likely direction the shown stock/etf/Commodity will NOT take

4)   Trial Offer: A $1-$10 special that will land up costing subscribers 10,000 times as much.

5)    Bubble Phase: When subscribers get gas due to indigestion following large losses.

6)    Mania Phase: Follows shortly after when Gary gets the occasional call right.

7)    Baby Bull: When Gary lays it on thick, but not too thick.

8)    Retail: The ones that Gary lures in.

9)   Bankers: The ones that actually make money. They neutralize every good move that Gary makes. It is estimated that Gary would be worth 73 Quadrillion if not for the bankers.

10) Model Portfolio: What the returns would have been if Gary actually lived in Squirrel Pant pressing land.

11) Terminating Model Portfolio: An event that happens at least once in 3 months usually on a weekend. Model portfolios are reactivated within 3 weeks or 12 blowjobs, whichever comes (pun intended) first. 

12)  Stops: Retroactively decided prices where Gary felt it best to to have exited in hindsight. 

13)  Undercut: Second chance to offer “Trial Offer” to “Retail”.

14)  Old Turkey: A haggled subscriber who is usually 90-99% underwater on his 3X ETF purchase.

15) PPT: A group of individuals who spend every moment of their lives keeping the stock market from going down and take a break only when Gary goes long leveraged SPY products.

Gary NEVER SOLD AT $1,275 Gold

Reposted up for newer fools he is recruiting.

I stand by my assertion that Gary’s deletion of his JNUG trade from his spreadsheet and claims that he is up 154% over 2 years does not protect him from a class action lawsuit by all those who lost money following his advice. While his trading powers rivalling a drunk monkey humping a pointy branch can be covered under his disclaimer, his deliberate, misleading and completely inaccurate marketing is not. In fact anyone who has lost serious money should be able to sue him just based on that. If he is actually a millionaire, you should be able to recoup all your losses.

One thing I noticed was that Gary’s entire façade rests on convincing people that he sold JNUG at the first sign of Gold breaking $1,275. While I have provided plenty of proof here, below is a lot more proof that Gary NEVER sold. A few months back I subscribed to Gary just to provide this to you. My generosity knows no bounds. 

SMT has a hard time outperforming Treasury Bills without heavy doctoring of trades. But I like his confidence.

NO losing trades in a bull market....but Gary can make that happen.  

Reloaded more? as in never sold at first. Model portfolio still long after the big drop in JNUG and Gold closing below $1,275.  

He is right. Gary did not get to where he is in life by following the law-abiding non-deceitful ways of the "herd". 

Nowhere near Gary's target and we are in the middle of Spring. I am guessing mmwilson is not "just happy" today. 

If you entered too early, where is the entry and exit documented in your spreadsheet dipshit? Oh I forgot..no exit. 

And finally below some more comments from that time. Note the 75% loss comment. All of this is conspicuously missing from Gary's trading record. 

Drewv, you my friend actually have the balls Gary keeps pretending to have. Well said bro. 

Now for a little tough love. There are people who have seen all the proof of Gary and still refuse to stand up to him on his blog for fear of being banned/their subscription canceled. Your subscription fees are a sunk cost. If you honestly believe Gary has something positive to offer you (Beyond the ultimate contrary indicator) then I have no sympathy for you. 

Baby Bull: How one man spotted 60 of the last zero bull markets: Part 8

Parts 1-7 can be read in the archives.

Gary relentlessly makes wild calls which have no bearing in reality.

 $500 Silver.

 $1,000 NUGT.

$10,000 Gold.

“I did not have a sexual relationship with that Chippendale’s stripper.”

And yet eventually a few dodos find their way to his subscription. Previously Gary hid in the shadows and nobody had documented his “work”. Now, in spite of large evidence to the contrary (this and SMT-exposed sites, both visible with simple Google searches), why do people subscribe? I have two theories here.

1)    The average IQ is 100 and the people subscribing are really, really dumb….we are talking sub 85 here.

2)    People actually believe they are smart enough to separate out  his very few “good” calls ( and I am going to say those are less than 5%) from his repeated bad “calls”.

Whatever the case may be, I think the evidence on his stupidity should have reached a critical mass, but it has not. That bothers me.  So here is another post documenting some of his more recent really stupid calls.

Gary called for another 500% to 1,000% rally on JNUG to suck in another round of subscribers in the beginning of 2017. If you fell for it, the only 500 you made out with was the donation you gave Gary's "Just see if I give a fuck" foundation.

JNUG actually rallied less than 15% from that point. and now is down 50% from point of his call.

Note that absolute prices are different due to yet another split impacting the 3X funds.

Let's look at another. Gary calling for a decline in the EURO and a bottom in the USD.

These are particularly instructive as Gary has been calling for the USD to crash for the better part of, AND I SHIT YOU NOT,.....A DECADE.

So the moment Gary actually gets a slight decline in the $USD, Gary starts calling for a bottom. This was wrong and the EURO rallied another 400 pips above that level with the $USD declining another 3.5%. 

These simple calls illustrate Gary's modus operandi. 

1) Keep calling for something.

2) Be wrong for months to years.

3) Claim victory as soon as the market finally turns.

4) "Book" minuscule gains and try to lure new subscribers in by giving the appearance of being cautious.

 "Look at me, I took small gains, so when I call for $70 trillion price of Silver I am not just breathing asscrack air all the time...am I?"

I get the feeling KWN is a fan of Heath Ledger

Is it really that hard to get a different pic for your scary headlines King World News?

It might be as they come up with 7 crash predictions a week, so unless they want to start using random memes from the internet, they have to recycle.

Still at some point it just looks silly (you fucks are far past that KWN).

Andrew Maguire: Dickwad Extraordinaire

Just when you thought the shit coming from Kingworldnews could not get crazier, this is what they print.

Yeah someone “deleted” part of Andrew Maguire’s interview about a major event happening in 26 days.

What did they delete?

They deleted Andrew saying “Massive buying in the gold market will come in 26 days.”

Oh poor baby.

I guess that means people are trying to prevent you from getting your message out.

You know the same message you tried to get out 2015.

Or in 2013. 

Or in 2011

So if the message did get deleted, don't worry, we will find it with a google search.

The Real Returns of Gary Savage: Part 2

Part 1: Can be read here.

Gary exited his DUST position this morning, 

much to the surprise of his followers who he kept telling over the past 2 weeks that he was going to make big bucks on this one.

Surprise mother fucka!

Leaving Gary down just 69.55% for the year. My dog trades better than that.

The village idiot is out with another JNUG call

Gary’s multiple calls for JNUG $500 were before a 4:1 split.

But Gary has quietly stopped referencing that. Now JNUG has to “only” go up 29 fold instead of 116 fold.

In fact after a 4:1 reverse split, JNUG is still below the $23 that Gary bought it at. That my friends is the true definition of a loser. 

Now here is the deal. I have never in my life, seen anyone so wrong for so long on EVERYTHING.  He is really due for a right call. In fact, it would be Black Swan Event if he did not get something right in the next 3 months. Do not be fooled when that happens. Do not be fooled by his "trial offers". They are just a way to sucker you in.

Living on a prayer

Reimagined words for Gary's Livin' on a Prayer

Once upon a time not so long ago

Gary's picks are down on the rocks
Four portfolio resets this year
He's down on his luck...
It's tough, so tough

John works the website all day
Working for his man,
He brings home his pay
For love, for love

He says, "We've gotta hold on to both our balls.
It doesn't make a difference if the subs make money or not.
We've got the fees and that's a lot.
For greed, we'll give it a shot."

[Chorus:]
Whoa, we're half way there
50% loss and we still don’t care
Take this 3X trade and we'll make it - I swear
Whoa, livin' on a prayer

Gary’s fighting the Bankers all day
They keep ruining his trades
What used to work, no longer does
So tough, it's not fair

Subs dream of running away
When they cry in the night
Gary whispers,
"Baby, it's okay, grow a pair...

...We've gotta hold on to both our balls.
It’s a bull market, nobody cares about the price you bought.
We've got the bubble phase and that's a lot.
For greed, we'll give it a shot."

[Chorus:]
Whoa, we're half way there
50% loss and we still don’t care
Take this 3X trade and we'll make it - I swear
Whoa, livin' on a prayer

Now for something totally fucking different

Considering that I have peeps here that are struggling with health issues, I decided to take a completely different turn this weekend.  Since I love to research, I have researched supplements as well. I have found some interesting stuff that I thought I would share.

First off, I am not a doctor. Second there is absolutely no monetary gain associated with what I am writing below. My hope is that people will get more curious about this and actually use this to find supplements that work rather than flushing money down the toilet.  Finally, do your own due diligence.

We often hear, this is good and that is bad for your health. But what really works?

This is a graph from Pubmed.Gov, showing the results of tens of thousands of actual clinical trials. It shows which supplements work and which are well…not proven as yet.  It is not an all comprehensive list but it is a lot of useful data. 

Here is the link to the infographic

Right at the top of that list is Selenium. While listed for decreasing symptoms of chemotherapy, there is also an armada of research on Selenium as a preventative agent against cancer and as strong adjunct to chemotherapy. 

Here is some nice info on the subject with the actual research papers you can read for yourself.

A 2011 meta-analysis of nine randomized controlled clinical trials including 152,538 participants established that selenium supplementation cut risk for all cancers by 24%. The cancer-preventive effect rose to 36% in people with low baseline selenium levels.

Lee EH, Myung SK, Jeon YJ, et al. Effects of selenium supplements on cancer prevention: Meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. Nutr Cancer. 2011 Oct 17.

Multiple studies reveal that low selenium levels in the blood, hair, or nail clippings are associated with a two to threefold increase in overall cancer risk. For specific tumors such as thyroid cancer, the risk rises to nearly 8-fold. Selenium insufficiencies are now known to increase risk of cancers of the bladder, lung, stomach, esophagus, and liver.

Rayman MP. Selenium in cancer prevention: a review of the evidence and mechanism of action. Proc Nutr Soc. 2005 Nov;64(4):527-42.

There are tons more research papers out there and while a couple of papers have said that is no impact, over 100 support that selenium is a very vital mineral to protect against cancer.

Have a wonderful weekend.