Baby Bull: How one man spotted 60 of the last zero bull markets: Part 8

Parts 1-7 can be read in the archives.

Gary relentlessly makes wild calls which have no bearing in reality.

 $500 Silver.

 $1,000 NUGT.

$10,000 Gold.

“I did not have a sexual relationship with that Chippendale’s stripper.”

And yet eventually a few dodos find their way to his subscription. Previously Gary hid in the shadows and nobody had documented his “work”. Now, in spite of large evidence to the contrary (this and SMT-exposed sites, both visible with simple Google searches), why do people subscribe? I have two theories here.

1)    The average IQ is 100 and the people subscribing are really, really dumb….we are talking sub 85 here.

2)    People actually believe they are smart enough to separate out  his very few “good” calls ( and I am going to say those are less than 5%) from his repeated bad “calls”.

Whatever the case may be, I think the evidence on his stupidity should have reached a critical mass, but it has not. That bothers me.  So here is another post documenting some of his more recent really stupid calls.

Gary called for another 500% to 1,000% rally on JNUG to suck in another round of subscribers in the beginning of 2017. If you fell for it, the only 500 you made out with was the donation you gave Gary's "Just see if I give a fuck" foundation.

JNUG actually rallied less than 15% from that point. and now is down 50% from point of his call.

Note that absolute prices are different due to yet another split impacting the 3X funds.

Let's look at another. Gary calling for a decline in the EURO and a bottom in the USD.

These are particularly instructive as Gary has been calling for the USD to crash for the better part of, AND I SHIT YOU NOT,.....A DECADE.

So the moment Gary actually gets a slight decline in the $USD, Gary starts calling for a bottom. This was wrong and the EURO rallied another 400 pips above that level with the $USD declining another 3.5%. 

These simple calls illustrate Gary's modus operandi. 

1) Keep calling for something.

2) Be wrong for months to years.

3) Claim victory as soon as the market finally turns.

4) "Book" minuscule gains and try to lure new subscribers in by giving the appearance of being cautious.

 "Look at me, I took small gains, so when I call for $70 trillion price of Silver I am not just breathing asscrack air all the time...am I?"

Living on a prayer

Reimagined words for Gary's Livin' on a Prayer

Once upon a time not so long ago

Gary's picks are down on the rocks
Four portfolio resets this year
He's down on his luck...
It's tough, so tough

John works the website all day
Working for his man,
He brings home his pay
For love, for love

He says, "We've gotta hold on to both our balls.
It doesn't make a difference if the subs make money or not.
We've got the fees and that's a lot.
For greed, we'll give it a shot."

[Chorus:]
Whoa, we're half way there
50% loss and we still don’t care
Take this 3X trade and we'll make it - I swear
Whoa, livin' on a prayer

Gary’s fighting the Bankers all day
They keep ruining his trades
What used to work, no longer does
So tough, it's not fair

Subs dream of running away
When they cry in the night
Gary whispers,
"Baby, it's okay, grow a pair...

...We've gotta hold on to both our balls.
It’s a bull market, nobody cares about the price you bought.
We've got the bubble phase and that's a lot.
For greed, we'll give it a shot."

[Chorus:]
Whoa, we're half way there
50% loss and we still don’t care
Take this 3X trade and we'll make it - I swear
Whoa, livin' on a prayer

Gold Bugs are idiots because they listen to people like Egon von Greyerz

High up on the dumbasses that people cite when they explain how the system is going to collapse, is this numbnut.

Egon von Greyerz.

Here is the screenshot from King World News latest interview.

 Sounds Legit. But we have been teetering for some time. 

Ok about a couple of years.

Ok seriously? We have been on the edge for so long? That must take some serious balance. 

 This is some slow motion train wreck.

Same guy above, though you cannot see his name. So this is a long incubation period????

You have got to be shitting me.

GARY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I found your long lost twin!!!!!!!!!!!

He is in in Switzerland!!!!!!!!!!

Gary the little lamb

Gary Savage, of the Smart Money Tracker blog, with his astounding stupidity has made me laugh so hard that I feel like a have pulled at least 4 muscles. What amazes me more is that people are still subscribing to him.

Anyway, my only comment about the market:

A freak-out if it happens, should be bought. Most likely it will be (if it happens) over 1^st Quarter GDP.

And here is why.  

Hat Tip to Jeroen Blokland.

And Maxdog, Spanky is not welcome here. Neither is any other Permabear/Doomer/Gold Bug. Spanky fit all 3 (usually people are all 3, although those idiots at THEAUTOMATICEARTH.COM fit only the first 2). 

Please do not invite him…yeah it is like the vampire principle. 

Finally since we do not just inform...we entertain.....

Thanks to LSPOONER for superb contribution and helping me past sticking points.

GOLDBUGSPRAY PRESENTS!!!!!!
  
                                                    Gary the little lamb 



A poem by DUCKWHOROCKS & LSPOONER 

                                          

Gary was a little lamb,
Who was fleeced white as snow.
he got chased out of metals,
so he bought UPRO...

The Gold bull will make us rich he said

The Fed has overplayed their hand

S & P will go to 500

And Gold to Twenty Grand

But it is 7 years later
and a few dollars less.
Entering at the top
oh what a mess!

He keeps using his cycles,
They were not supposed to fail,
But the only bottoms he is catching
Belong to strippers at Chippendales!

Blaming the Fed/PPT for your short-sightedness

I found this absolutely fantastic piece of data, which shows the breakdown of returns in the largest bull markets. It shows how much the 5 different areas contributed to the total returns.

Some conclusions.

1)    Of the 9 largest bull markets including the current, 6 have had LOWER earnings growth than current. Meaning we had 6 bull markets where earnings increase were actually lower the current and contributed less to the total return.  Again, a stark reminder to all those believe the Fed has “managed” this market, that bull markets regularly occur with lower GDP/Earnings growth than we have had. 

2)    Dividend Yield, Valuation expansion and Inflation are middle of the pack.

3)    Valuation normalization was the second largest among the 9. That means that Stocks at March 2009 were second cheapest ever and hence normalization contributed so much.

4)    There is nothing unusual about this bull market except a giant ass fucking bubble in fear and pessimism perpetuated by sites like King World News, Zerohedge and the Looney tunes “System will collapse” idiots.

Full article can be read here

Still falling for you (r bullshit) Gary Savage

Manipulation Part 2 will be delayed as we had to bring you this more urgently.

So we have a charlatan who claims his “Model portfolio” is up 150%. I had my doubts. So I subscribed just to see what the fuck was going on.

Below was the second entry point of our genius. JNUG was at $23 at the time on August 31st. Note he had already committed 50% at higher prices. 

  

What followed was absolutely awful. Gold smashed through $1,275 and JNUG was down 40% in a flash. Did Gary sell? He found it hard to believe that many on his blog including me, got this right. He also found it hard to sell. In fact he was ready to back up the truck and advised never, never to sell into an oversold market. 

Some relevant comments from the discussion.

At this point with JNUG around $12, model portfolio was already down to a small 25% gain. This was the same model portfolio that had been blown to zero multiple times before. 3 days later he was totally convinced the bottom as in.

Even telling this poor soul who was down $90,000 that he should not sell.

While his subs were devastated, Gary's pie in the sky targets continued. He added three more "buys" over the next few days.

 But one sub stated the whole truth. "RESET THE MODEL PORTFOLIO BACK TO 100"

But Gary kept adding “buys" and more fanciful ideas to keeps subs on the losing trade. 

Even from $12, JNUG suffered another 70% loss before bottoming so Gary's refusal to give up on 3X ETFs had some bad results. Further, he added that Gold was going to test the highs in the next daily cycle and exceed $1,400 by November 13th or so. 

Finally, Gary did what all men of his low calibre do when faced with a large mess of their own doing. He blamed someone else and HE TERMINATED the MODEL PORTFOLIO. 

This is classic Gary. 

1) There is no natural scenario where Gold suffers repeated premarket attacks to cap price below $1,275 (so your trading only works when there is no manipulation which you repeatedly have said plagues the Gold market?)

2) There is no natural scenario where a daily gold cycle tops on day 2 (yeah there is you fuck, it is when you get the count wrong)

3) I just have no idea how to trade (Just stop right there Gary. You nailed it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!).

But Gary was not done in his Squirrel Pant Pressing land.....His Model portfolio was still up 54%!!! This was astonishing to say the least as someone else had confirmed that it was down to 25% at much higher prices for JNUG. Regardless he terminated the model portfolio. From here on out he was not going to use the Model Portfolio. 

About a month later. 

AND we are back!!!!!!!!!!! In fact the very first comment brought this up, but Gary dodged the question. Mind you Gary would have to close his old trades likely bringing his "Model portfolio" down by 90% but he just glazed over this and closed his portfolio on a day the markets were closed. My friend, I would like you to realize that people cannot close out real world positions on holidays. 

Regardless, JNUG was closed at an 80% (from $22.5 to $4.5) loss somewhere between December 22 and December 27.

Gary Savage/Toby Connor, you keep fucking up....so as Ellie Goulding would ask...(Why are your subs) Still falling for you?

Yen and Commodities

People draw correlations where there are none, at least not consistently.
While Yen and Gold have had a buxom buddy friendship of late, they were not always joint at the hip, or the boobies.

Between 2001 and 2008 the Yen Index was up 7%, while commodities (as defined by CRB) had their biggest 8 year rally.
Oil was up 14 fold during this time.
In 2008-2009 Yen had a big spike and was up 20% while commodities crashed.
Between 2009 and 2012, Yen Index went up another 15% while oil moved from $35 to $100 and most commodities did very well.
Between 2012 and mid 2014 Yen Index went down 20% and commodities stayed flat.
Between late 2014 and 2016 Yen index went down another 15% and commodities crashed.

I dare you to find the correlation between Yen and the CRB from the above data.

Please Sir, May I have another?

So this post is the first question and my main thought on the subject. It is an expansion of a comment I posted.

The mantra of everyone that speaks on King World News is that Gold is manipulated lower. The price should be several fold (several percent....you really cannot get all of these people to agree) higher. Thinking rationally one can reach two conclusions from that if one believes it .
1) Thanks for making it cheaper….can you please manipulate my hooker costs in New York next?

2) I will not trade it where the Powers that be have obviously been successfully manipulating it forever.

How the Fuck do you go from “This shit is heavily manipulated to the downside and I am fighting all the central banks together” to “Let me leverage my ass by buying a 3X leveraged etf, where the underlying itself (gold stocks) is leveraged 3X to the price of Gold because I am a freaking glutton for punishment. I will take 900% leverage to the price of Gold because I am hoping against hope that my tiny purchase of 5 ounces of Gold and 300 shares of NUGT will break the Central Banks. ”

This I need to understand. Please explain your masochism.  I know very few people read this blog at present, so please spread the word. I would like to specially hear from the ones that have shrines dedicated to Gold and have set KingWorldNews.com as their home page.