Gary probably failed grade 6...Multiple times.Part 2.

Part 1 which was posted on January 9th 2017, can be read here.

The crux of the argument here is that Gary probably has a sub-80 IQ to say such crap.

The specifics are that highly volatile ETFs are very dangerous for Buy and Hold investors. I have explained in part 1 that Gary’s $500-$1,000 target are so out of whack with reality that subscribing to Gary for his wisdom is about as useful as volunteering for 32 optional root canals.

Let’s revisit what happened since Part 1. 

GDXJ down 0.6% since Jan 9th.

Implied Change in JNUG Negative 1.8%.

Actual change in JNUG since Jan 9th. NEGATIVE 20.70%.

In 3 months JNUG has underperformed its “expected” (and I use the word expected loosely as anyone observing these would not expect anything like this) benchmark by 19% in 3 months or at annualized rate of over 70%.

Sounds far-fetched? One-off? Let’s look another new rolling 12 month return.

GDXJ up 38% in the last 12 months.

Implied 3X move in JNUG would be UP 114%.

Actual change in JNUG. NEGATIVE 10%.

Underperformance of 120% compared to “expected”.

True Gary. None of us will make any of those gains because they will not exist.

But I and others will continue to rub this in your face till JNUG goes to my target of $0 in the next 5 years.  

Gold Bugs are idiots because they listen to people like Egon von Greyerz

High up on the dumbasses that people cite when they explain how the system is going to collapse, is this numbnut.

Egon von Greyerz.

Here is the screenshot from King World News latest interview.

 Sounds Legit. But we have been teetering for some time. 

Ok about a couple of years.

Ok seriously? We have been on the edge for so long? That must take some serious balance. 

 This is some slow motion train wreck.

Same guy above, though you cannot see his name. So this is a long incubation period????

You have got to be shitting me.

GARY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I found your long lost twin!!!!!!!!!!!

He is in in Switzerland!!!!!!!!!!

The 4 strongest arguments for a big bear market (and why all are wrong) Part 1

Valuation by Shiller PE:

This is one of the strongest arguments for a bear market. The CAPE or Shiller P/E ratio which calculates the  P/E ratio by taking the inflation adjusted earnings over the last decade, is currently around 30 (this is an older chart but it shows fantastic info so I used it).  Periods when CAPE was over 22 are shaded. What it does show is that in general; stocks have a hard time making much progress when CAPE is that high.

Periods of elevated CAPE are from

1986 to 1910

1929-1950

1968 to 1982

and 1996 to virtually all the way to today with a brief interlude in between.

Also this chart is the total return index as in the value of investment with dividends reinvested. This shows that in spite of dividends reinvested, the total return is definitely weaker in those periods.

But anyone using CAPE alone is missing the big picture. As the second chart shows, stocks have returned on average 1% after inflation even during elevated CAPE. 

But the range is astronomical. If you expect 4% inflation average over the next 10 years, your total nominal returns on stock could be a -10% to 120%. You could certainly lock in a guaranteed 27% in a 10 year bond for part of the portfolio and current yield jump certainly makes bonds a lot more appealing than they were before.

By itself CAPE/Shiller P/E suggest that the markets will likely not make large inflation adjusted headway in the years to come. But the range is so huge that it is next to useless as a forecasting tool and certainly no guarantee that the bull market is ending.

Stocks will still beat bonds (most likely) if we have moderate to high inflation.

Shiller P/E is the reason though that I am heavily underweight US in my portfolio and have all my long term holdings in REITS and Energy. Both sectors are heavily out of favour and many REITS where I have the lion’s share of the portfolio are trading at single digit multiples.  

To be continued....

March 22, 2017-Gary Savage is still an idiot

Just felt like adding that to the title, although the post has nothing to do with it.

Some blasts from the past all from KING WORLD NEWS..please note the dates.  

1) I swear I thought it was an advertisement for Tylenol. 

"Whatever time zone you are in.....for fast rapid acting relief...Trust Tylenol"

2) Not sure about soar but that definitely got a rise out of me. 

John Ing is hardly a legend...in fact the only word i can attribute to him right now is Boob. 

3) Did we witness...hey wait a second...

I know this guy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!@@@@@@@@@

Weekend Wrap By BGINVESTOR: Part Trois

SIdebar: After months of ignoring the truths being brought to light by this blog, SMT-Exposed and even Avi Gilburt, Mr. Gary Savage decided to ask us to give him credit for his winning trades. That is the equivalent of a doctor that kills a family member due to malpractice, reminding you that months back he administered a Flu shot to said family member. 

Gary, you are reckless, dangerous, arrogant and deceitful. You want me to stop you panzy? Ass hurting too badly?  Fine.

1)    Take my Still falling for your bullshit post.

2)    Put it up on your premium and free blog for 2 weeks

3)   Annotate it clearly to explain how and when you sent the message to sell JNUG, rather than keep adding.  Explain how you closed trades on the weekend, where the losses went. 

4)    If your explanations are logical and truthful, I will stop completely. 

Weekend wrap!   Bginvestor

What can I say, so much entertainment this week!   Why go to the movies, when you can see “Gary the gold Guru” trying to convince the gold bugs to be herded into the equity markets! 

UPRO – Daily

Admittedly, I think Gary mentioned that he was trying to catch the top of the daily cycle.  But, cycle analysis suggests that the end of this daily cycle starts into the intermediate cycle low.   I think he’s hoping the price will hit the moon first.  I don’t know, we shall see!

$VIX – daily

The VIX shows just how crazy the SM markets are right now.  Price has been in the channel for months.  I’ll bet the complacency ends sooner than later.                  DUCK: The spike should be shorted by VXX. Look at 1990’s VIX stayed low for very long periods of time.

DIA – daily

I’m going to be patient and wait for a decent correction.  This does not scream low risk right now, you know what I mean?  Besides, most of the SM sectors are clearly over bought and profits should be taken before they are taken from you.

VNQ – daily

One exception is REITS; they got pounded for a few weeks and one of the few sectors that are over sold..   VNQ bounced off a well-defined support at FOMC..

I’m already in baby!

DUCK: Everyone here knows how I feel about REITS. 

CHN – daily

This is just a reminder that there are ETFs other than the metal sector that kick ass!

DUCK: China leads the commodity markets quite often. 

ULE – daily

I missed several opportunities this week.  This is one of them.   I noticed that bullish pattern early on, but didn’t pull the trigger. 

The downward trend has been broken.  I repeat, the down ward trend line has been broken.  ;)

DUCK: 2 ECB members talked about rate hikes. Just a reminder, in 2008, USD and EURO interest rates were about the same and the Euro was at 1.60. I think we will hit 1.20 easy this year. 

$USDJPY – daily

We’ll see if there’s enough steam to push through supports next week..

GDXJ – daily

Obviously, there was going to be a breakout!   I told you. Mission accomplished.  ;)

GDXJ – daily

Oh boy, I hope price hits that support line.   I have the 3X gun off of safety and ready to pull the trigger.

I bought in low like a lot of you, but could not resist capturing the profits from the vertical move.  So far, it worked out very well.   I’m up over 15% in my account just for this week alone.

By the way, Mark showed me a chart that suggests there’s no way price is going to get down there!   And he may be right. 

So, if you want to go long, I suggest scaling in, seriously.

GS – daily

Goldman got kicked in the sac today!  Is this an early sign of market weakness?   hmmmm

DUCK: I am short this one with av average price $248.50 adjusted for puts and calls sold. I round tripped this in spectacular style as it fell right after I went short, but i have still not covered. If TLT explodes higher GS will definitely meet its 200 moving average which is more than $50 lower. 

UGAZ – daily

Today’s trade was going long..  I missed it!

I find it interesting that the support line got tagged like 7 times!   I plan to use that to my advantage.

LABU – daily

Very interesting chart!

There was $$ to be made in biotech this week.

NUGT -  daily

Damn, that does look bullish! Let’s see what happens next week.

That’s it for me!   Hope some of the charts were somewhat interesting..  Let’s keep up the discussions next week.  Cheers!

Gary the little lamb

Gary Savage, of the Smart Money Tracker blog, with his astounding stupidity has made me laugh so hard that I feel like a have pulled at least 4 muscles. What amazes me more is that people are still subscribing to him.

Anyway, my only comment about the market:

A freak-out if it happens, should be bought. Most likely it will be (if it happens) over 1^st Quarter GDP.

And here is why.  

Hat Tip to Jeroen Blokland.

And Maxdog, Spanky is not welcome here. Neither is any other Permabear/Doomer/Gold Bug. Spanky fit all 3 (usually people are all 3, although those idiots at THEAUTOMATICEARTH.COM fit only the first 2). 

Please do not invite him…yeah it is like the vampire principle. 

Finally since we do not just inform...we entertain.....

Thanks to LSPOONER for superb contribution and helping me past sticking points.

GOLDBUGSPRAY PRESENTS!!!!!!
  
                                                    Gary the little lamb 



A poem by DUCKWHOROCKS & LSPOONER 

                                          

Gary was a little lamb,
Who was fleeced white as snow.
he got chased out of metals,
so he bought UPRO...

The Gold bull will make us rich he said

The Fed has overplayed their hand

S & P will go to 500

And Gold to Twenty Grand

But it is 7 years later
and a few dollars less.
Entering at the top
oh what a mess!

He keeps using his cycles,
They were not supposed to fail,
But the only bottoms he is catching
Belong to strippers at Chippendales!

Who is Gary Savage/Toby Connor?

Spot the 10 differences between Toby and Gary.

Sorry that was a trick question...there are none.

So, who the fuck is this guy? He even chose the same damn picture. Not that I would recommend it, as an art of deception but he could shave that beard off and move the piercing to his dick, so at least somebody might be fooled. 

Why do I care? Gary Savage/Toby Connor is a scam artist. I understand enough of the markets to know that he understands next to nothing. What he does know is how to sell. That soothing, glib voice telling you "I am a multi-millionaire....and you will always be the dumb money." Gently adding "Folks...this is nothing new....we are in a bull market" by which he is referring to the bull market in his subscriptions.  I care because he will destroy portfolios with his snake oil salesman charm and I am hoping to help spread the word. Those who followed my comments and trades on Gary's website between August and December, saw that I got everything right and he got everything wrong. You should have been able to see him for the true idiot he is. If you did not, then read his archives and this wonderful, wonderful site

http://smartmoneytrackerpremium-exposed.com/ and if you still want to invest with him....well you deserve everything you are about to get.

Edit

A few more people who have felt that Gary and Toby have not been spectacular.

https://forexkong.com/2014/06/18/gold-going-down-snake-oil-salesmen-as-well/

https://forexkong.com/2013/12/22/calling-out-gary-savage-shame-on-you-man/

https://forexkong.com/2014/01/16/gary-savage-the-dumb-money-tracker/

and here are some discussions about him having a publicist ( I have my doubts that he would have publicist specially when he cannot spell it.)

http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.ca/2010/10/bottom-in-sight.html

  And let's end with Toby/Gary's second best call ever. 

Only off by 80% or 340% depending on how you measure it.