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Sunday, December 4, 2016

Portfolio Update

Current trading positions
Long EUR/USD from 1.058. Sold Half at 1.0688.
Short TCK (half covered at 24.41 or so) from 26.44
Short GDX Dec 20 Puts from 65 cents (Indirect Longs on GDX)
Short SLW Dec 18 puts from 81 cents (Indirect Longs on GDX)
Long TLT Jan 122 calls $1.40

The prices may be off at times by a couple of cents as I do this from recollection. Occasionally, my mind will have added the commission, and sometimes I forget about it. This is not an intention to deceive and in most cases the amount will be immaterial. But if I miss something big (unlikely), please bring it to my attention. I will try and update as close to real time as possible but again that may not always be feasible, so don't rely on that. 

Coming week. 
I think it will be a decent week for Euro/USD (up).

December should be moderately favourable for Gold/Gold stocks. Remember, GDX is still up quite a lot for the year, so people will try and defer selling till January where feasible to minimize taxes. This will be a mild tailwind. 

I am looking for $23-$24 on GDX. But as long as it stays over $20 till December expiration (December 16th), I make 3% on risked capital and about 4% on SLW as long as it stays above 18. This may seem like a small amount but 3.5% in half a month is 84% annualized. I take my small victories and add them up. I take what I consider to be low risk trades where my chances of winning are high. 

These are my positions, suitable for me. Not recommendations for anyone. 
If you need financial advice see a financial advisor. 
If you have money to blow up, subscribe to Gary. 
If you are in a hurry to blow it up, go for the Quest Portfolio. 


  1. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-05/investors-are-dangerously-unprepared-axel-weber-former-bundesbank-head-warns-coming-

    Yeah this is what driving EUR/USD.....not the stupid election.

  2. Okay I'll play.
    TNA: Thurs(12/1) buy approx 10% portfolio 90.76
    sold 3/4 position 91.94
    Fri buy 3/4 position 91.24
    sold 1/2 position 92.64
    buy 1/4 position 91.44
    Mon(12/5) sold 1/4 position 93.84
    sold 1/2 position 96.24
    AGQ Thurs(12/1) buy 3% portfolio 34.24
    Sold 1/2 35.44
    Fri Sold out 35.84
    Mon(12/5) buy 3% 35.08
    NUGT Thurs(12/1) Buy 2% 7.44
    Sold 1/2 8.04
    Fri buy 1/2 8.04
    Sold 1/4 8.48
    Sold 1/4 8.64
    Mon(12/5) buy 1/2 7.78

    1. Damnnn! Nice trading dude. Keep it up. Post here so I and others (there are very few at present in case you have not noticed) can benefit.

    2. Just sold 1/2 NUGT 7.98 and 1/4 AGQ 5.54. I think a bounce in precious metals is underway, but not particularly impressed with price action right now.

  3. I also hold longer term positions in SPY and USO, averaged way below here, that I trade less frequently. Maybe I will eventually post some of that, but this realtime updating is a pita and distracts from my market concentration.
    Good trading to all.

    1. Yeah I have longer term positions in Oil and oil Service.
      I hate USO because of the decay.

    2. I agree about USO, although I try to stay with the trend and trade it regularly. What instrument(s) are you using for oil that don't have decay? Thanks.

    3. I don't use any oil etfs as they have to have decay 90% of the time....whenever we have contango. DBO is a bit better as they roll less frequently and use "intelligent roll" whatever that means. I prefer oil and oil service stocks. Occasionally I will trade oil futures but then I can buy a particular month rather than the front month if I do not want it.

    4. Okay, I see. I no longer trade, with the rare exception, individual equities, for two reasons. Firstly, if I'm buying for anything more than day-trading I prefer not to have company specific risk. Secondly, if I'M day trading, I like the mojo of leverage.
      As for futures, I gave those up years ago, when etfs became widely traded, but I dig your reasoning.

  4. TBT 12/1 sold 40% of position (still holding rest from July)
    UUP 12/1 sold all from July
    GDXJ 12/1 bought (also bought 10/7 and still holding)
    SLV 12/1 bought (also bought 10/7 and still holding)
    VXX (negligible percent position) still holding from 28.7
    Cash 50% of portfolio

  5. Okay, a little premature pm sales, but I'm conservatively aggressive. Looking for a gap fill in NUGT (8.5ish). I'd like to see AGQ breakout above 36. We may just ratchet around these levels for a while.

  6. Just sold 1/4 NUGT 8.34. 1/2 left.

  7. I may take position in GDX on pullback for slightly less aggressive trading.

  8. Sold 1/4 NUGT 8.42 due to short term overbought.

  9. Sold 1/4 AGQ 35.72, 1/2 left. Holding 1/4 NUGT for now and looking for GDX entry.

  10. I am not encouraged by this pattern in Gold. Still staying with my (relatively defensive) longs.

    1. Gold looks like crappola. Is it leading or or miners signaling a bounce? Rhetorical question of course.

  11. Nice trading maxdog :)

    I was also holding spy long term (from 2011), but I sold it all in mid 2015, and put it all in the gold sector at that time.

    I sold all gold at the end of July 2016, but I never got back into stocks after that.

    I've been lucky over the past few years, so I'll likely start trading really stupidly soon.

    1. Wow that's a long term hold in the SPY. I rarely get long term cap gains, unfortunately from a tax perspective. I first got back in SPY in the mid 180's and have been trading a good percent of my position in and out. Quite frankly, I expected an actual bear market after the record bull from 2009 - 2016.
      Nice work on your trading!
      My mantra is remain cautious, confidence is dangerous.
      Good luck in the future.

  12. After 50 articles deriding the rising oil price, the dumbfucks at zerohedge cannot get enough.

    Yeah keep driving looking at the rearview mirror...should work out great for you.