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Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Portfolio Update

Covered short sold GDX puts.
Had sold at 61 cents, covered at 16 cents. +45 cents or about 2.5% risked capital
Covered Short sold SLW puts
Sold at 81 cents, covered at 17 cents+ 64 cents or about 3% of risked capital.
No long positions on PM sector, direct or indirect any more.

58 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. I am amused at how little bounce we have got in GDX but it now is very confusing for me so I am staying out.

      Delete
  2. If you guys don't mind my asking, why are you both selling?

    You're expecting that this is just a brief bounce, then a lower low?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My reasoning being AGQ is a leveraged fund I use for short term trading. If you follow my transaction trail you will see I just made a good % on my investments in a short period of time. You might also notice I'm still holding 1/2 my AGQ and a GDX position, but yes, I do think this is only a relief rally.

      Delete
    2. I think it could go higher but I remember my own logic......Gold Oil ratio at 12-15, even with oil at $70 could throw thing way lower. Plus GDX has a lot of leverage on Gold and their costs will be higher when oil is higher.

      So longer term it is hard to get bullish on this sector. I am sticking with my long term positions in Oil related stocks for now. I might but GDX but right now I am staying out though definitely not shorting.

      Delete
  3. Just realized that there are people trading USO who don't know how roll decay, Contango, works. Unbelievable.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm guessing you've been diving into the murky waters of SMT again.

      Delete
    2. Lol. Yes. It is like a train wreck I cannot look away from.

      Delete
    3. Make sure you steam clean your clothes after leaving SMT. It's a bug colony. Bugs everywhere there.

      Delete
  4. I have put some other very short term trades on today, but will not be posting them, until some more interest develops, preferably in the form of other's trades. It's a lot of work to post live while day trading. I will still post trades I intend for short and intermediate term, as well as my opinions/analysis. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is. and I appreciate it.
      I always wanted to trade shorter time frames but I found it very hard to do.
      Maybe I can learn from you :)

      Delete
  5. Here is an unexpected event, I think will play out. ECB tapers. Very strong Euro, very weak Eur/USD AND weak GOLD as real rates now start rising on the other side of the Atlantic.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I sold 1/2 GDX 21.68. I will probably jettison the remainder on any further weakness. I don't like the price action, so better safe than greedy.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Sold 1/4 GDX 21.62.
    Intra day price patterns are always a little more tricky than longer term charting, but I don't particularly like the action here.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Thanks to both of you, yeah definitely smart to take profits when you're scalping short term.

    Duck, I disagree with you about Alex, I think he's an excellent trader.

    Interesting, so you think gold may continue to follow rates, even if the dollar weakens.

    That's a concern of mine too. I felt great about gold last year, but I don't like this setup now nearly as much.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I was not referencing Alex above with my USO comment.
      That said, every call of his, that I looked at, in his time frames has been wrong.

      Delete
  9. For AJ and anyone else who might care. If we are actually at the end of this cycle bear market in PMs, and I doubt it, There will be plenty of opportunities to make money going forward in that sector. Prognosticating is for the ego, trading is for making money. One can be right with their predictions and still lose money and vice versa. Expectancy, Opportunity cost and proper risque management are imo a lot more important than being a markets Nostradamus, unless of course you're selling a newsletter. I'm just another idiot without a crystal ball, so I've learned to trade. This is how I make a living.
    I'll add that I've found the further you go out in time, the harder it is to be accurate. Which is why I trade on all time frames.

    ReplyDelete
  10. My general opinion regarding the gold market is we are in a cyclical bear market within a long term bull market. Commodities often retrace 50% or more after a strong bull move such as the previous one. Even if the cyclical bear is over, retesting the lows would not be unual.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I am bullish on steel sector. Clf is my favorite but I am on the side now do to the overbought condition. Looking to feed a pullback.
    Intermediate trade , long HCHC from lower levels, hoping for a breakout from base like Clf has had.
    Not in love with the yellow junk so no trade there at the moment. I have a gtc order at 2.5 for nugt but will probably lower it. ��

    Thinking both vrx and twtr are washed out and waiting for tax loss selling to Finnish.
    Thanks for website and posting your trades.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm no expert on steel sector, but I am bullish on general market. I would assume that would lift steel along with it. On the other hand wasn't China a big problem for US steel companies. Is that only on the production end? Is this a play on potential Trump tariffs? Do you expect steel to outperform other sectors? (so many questions) I'm not familiar with CLF, I'll have to check the chart. Thanks.

      Delete
    2. Wow, yeah that's quite extended. I didn't realize that was the old Cleveland Cliffs. It may just need some consolidation, but personally I'd be a little cautious on all these infrastructure plays based on Trumps supposed plans. I think the easy money has been made.

      Delete
    3. X CEO was just on tv claiming he me be calling back as many as 10k workers. He sounded bullish.
      As for CLF, I retired from there last February. They are doing a 65 million dollar improvement at UTAC for direct reduction pellets. They MIGHT also get mineral rights from the Essar plant that is going through bankruptcy. It's all in litigation. I thought CLF was going to go bankrupt but got long the gap open @ about 3.5 when they signed a long term contract with MT. I have since blown the trade after many successful in and outs. There is a daily Fibonacci here at 10.64.
      Vix is on low end if it's band and S&P is on upper end. I think a pullback is in order. 2250 should be max.

      Delete
  12. That's so funny, the longer I go out in time, the more accurate I tend to be. :)

    I could never sell a newsletter for that reason. Very few people will just sit long term in something, because it causes too much anxiety and it's also so boring, even if it makes money.

    I think it's best to match your trading with what personally fits you best.

    That's why I think it's great that you're disciplined in taking profits and being patient with entries, because there are always many opportunities. No need to chase only one.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Duck, trading on short term time frames can't be expected to have a perfect hit rate though. Even being right on short term more than half the time is incredible to me.

    That's why you have to go smallball, just like you guys do on your scalps, and Alex does too.

    Overall, Alex seems to have a great instinct for markets to me. I really appreciate his posts.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good point. Just I personally have found no value in his posts. But I have never trolled him either. I have trolled Gary/Toby obviously because he is the sum of the earth.

      Delete
    2. Let me correct this one. That would be scum of the earth. He is the sum of the lowest common denominator.

      Delete
  14. Looks like I was a little early on my SPY sell, but profits are, well, profits.
    My trigger finger is itching on TZA, but these kinds of impulsive moves can be widow makers when you fade them with a 3x.
    I'll just wait for my previously stated SPY target a little above here (or signs of breakdown) and reduce my core position.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Comments like this one give me motivation to take profits in PMs whenever there are any.

    quote: "gold is going down to $400 an ounce, because of higher interest rates and a higher US$ and anything that is detrimental to gold. Looking at a time frame of 3 to 5 years, the Congressional Budget Office is forecasting fiscal spending of $5.3 trillion over the next 10 years. That breaks down to the US government growing the economy 2% per year during that time. That is the US government and doesn’t include the private economy."
    ~Brian Acker, President, CEO of Acker Finley Inc. and Acker Finley Asset Management Inc.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah he is gonna be wrong big time.

      Delete
    2. Really I thought gold was gonna declare bankruptcy.

      Delete
    3. You gonna have to wear body armor to protect yourself from gold bugs after comments like that.

      Delete
    4. $400 sticks in my mind because that's the price Rob McEwen sold Goldcorp's stash at just before he left the company.

      Seems like a decade ago.
      Oh, I guess it's been that long.

      Delete
  16. Maxdog, you sold half AGO at 37.74 this am, that's incredible.

    What do you use to pinpoint intra day prices to the second like that?

    You've done that on other trades too. Since you make a living trading, that can't just be luck.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For intra-day trading I use the chart combined with oscillators. It's mostly about oversold/overbought.
      Sure some of my trades look pretty damn spot on, but look at some of my others in this tremendous four day sampling. TNA for example. I left a boat load of profit on the table there. The key is to make more money than lose, period. So if things look extended, I tend not to push my luck and bail.

      Delete
  17. Yo Duck, I think if you check your blog settings you can invert the text so the new posts show on top. This can prevent a lot of scrolling and you will look smart😄

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just looked ..cannot find in settings..or by googling. If you can help me find it that would be great!

      Delete
    2. It's been a while but I think I did something like this on mine
      http://www.oneminuteinfo.com/2011/07/reverse-order-of-comments-in-blogger.html?m=1

      Delete
    3. Thanks....looks a bit more complicated than I am used to...but will try on the weekend.

      Delete
    4. Yeah, I just checked my old blog. I thought I had the comments reversed but they aren't now. Maybe I. Ever got it right, don't remember.
      Good luck if you try. I know the tech stuff can be frustrating.

      Delete
  18. Bought so you 20.7
    Will probably give S&P about a percent for a stop, just above 2050.
    I usually lose on shorts.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's funny, I was trying to figure that out. Good luck.
      With regard to CLF, I'd wait for the 8.6 area for reentry, if things still look good, but I guess you could risk it at around 10 if you were really bullish.
      I'm sure you already knew that though, given your posting name.

      Delete
    2. Yeah the trouble with it now is that it could drop to 6 and still be bullish. Got out last at 8.64 on the way up and should have got back in there when it pulled back to it.

      Delete
  19. Sold out of GDX 21.58.
    I'll let Gary and crew get rich on PMs for now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lol. "It will be a big rally...200% minimum as long as you take 10X leverage".

      Delete
  20. I'll be dumping the last of my AGQ shortly as well.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Sold 10% of core SPY position 223.8

    ReplyDelete
  22. Holy crap!!!
    Okay I'm calling for a congressional investigation. I'm pretty sure Trumps been selling performance enhancing drugs to the equities market.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Lol

    Looks like I should have grabbed vxx instead.
    Looks like I am down a bit on SPXU but I am going to ask for a recount.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Well in reviewing the charts post market, upon close inspection GLD looks a bit short term bullish. Here's the case;
    -From a straight graphic perspective today's action looks
    like a bull flag.
    -MACD, Momentum and Stoch look to pointing bullish.
    -This bad boy is really oversold.
    Conclusion; fundamentally I don't see a strong case for gold at the moment although I need to see how things play out with rates, the Dollar and Yen and inflation as well as commodities (especially oil), but technically things look ripe for another stab on the long side tomorrow. I'll let early price action dictate.

    ReplyDelete
  25. GDX support @ 20 is holding while gold has cratered through its support of 1201.
    Seems reasonable for me to take a position in GDX with a stop just below 20 but knowing that if gold doesn't recapture its support, it could get ugly. Gold stocks sure are whimpy being that gold is up near four fold from it $250 lows.
    Ore prices for steel go up a little and the stocks explode. All the goldbugs been getting chopped up while steel stocks are up 100/1000%

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, gold companies have long been known to be some of the most dishonest shareholder screwing listings on the exchange.
      My play is simply a short term technical trade on a possible move in GLD to, if memory serves me correctly, around 115-116 or around 1220ish in gold.
      To be clear, I'm not turning bullish on gold longer term yet. I believe we see at least a retest of 2015 lows or possibly a drop below 1000, maybe 950.
      That would easily take GDX down to 16 or below. Just an educated guess of course.
      To your point though, there are definitely better places to make money, but the general market is dangerously extended at the moment.

      Delete
  26. For any body who cares, my day trades today were in LABD (about 4% net) and FAS (About 3%) with relatively small position sizes. Not sure why biotech was so weak today, maybe a harbinger of things to come. When biotech gets some mojo, few things offer such big price/time moves. Just want to make sure you stay on the right side of it.
    Has anybody been trading the home builders? I haven't looked, but they must be rockin.
    Any and all ideas welcomed. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Oh and one last note, I took a small position in TZA at 19.84 near the close. Hoping for minimal pain before gain.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Long nugt & 8.63
    Low confidence trade, as I think it can go either way.

    ReplyDelete