Ok. First off. Big fuck up chasing GDX at $20.60 when I had stayed away from the sector since August and every bone in my body, including my penis when I see Abigail Spencer, believed that it would not bottom until $20 was broken.
I still stuck my head out and now I am down 3% on a 15% position in 2 hours. I have taken another 1% portfolio hit on USD/JPY and TLT calls might cost be another 1%.
All in all I should have done something more productive with my time.
My sense though is that we are very close to the bottom. This rate of change in the long bond has completely frozen mortgage/new home buying activity and the upcoming reports will reflect that.
The small specs and large specs are having a field day at the expense of the commercials and this has probably gotten even more extreme as of today (report shown from December 6th).
Also TLT is currently 12% below its 200 day moving average, a all time record.
Previous occasion that came close was mid 2013 from where TLT went sideways for a few months formed a double bottom in December 2013 and then rallied for whole of 2014.
The 14 week ROC is now at the lowest level since 2009,which was after the crisis and TLT was mean reverting from very high levels. Even that level created a 15% rally over the next 5 months.
Let's see what tomorrow brings.
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