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I will not be responsible for any material that is found on this site or at the end of links that I may post on this blog site. Mistakes may happen from time to time. URLS and domains may change hands. If you need financial advice or someone to hold your hand while you make the trade, please find another site.

Because the information on this blog are based on my personal opinion and gosh I am so fucking opinionated, it should NOT be considered professional financial investment advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional, preferably both and in that order. My thoughts and opinions will also change from time to time as I learn and accumulate more knowledge,or my meds wear out, or my post coital euphoria passes.

Feel free to comment on my ideas or ask questions in the comments section for the blog entries. Please remember that this is a blog, and you do not need to agree with everything or anything I write (except I am very needy when it comes to my looks...so you have to say nice things). I reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason (abusive, profane, rude, etc.) so please keep the comments polite, unless you are criticising Gold Bugs...in which case go wild....doggie style.

This site is also dedicated to preventing small traders from having their accounts go supernova by listening to Gary Savage. To read more about him, please browse through the posts and also see http://smartmoneytrackerpremium-exposed.com/


Saturday, December 10, 2016

What is QE? (Yellen don't hurt me, don't hurt me...no more)

I thought I would do this is a question and answer format, rather than a regular post style.

1) What is quantitative easing?
Purchase of long term bonds by central banks to lower interest rates.

2) Is it "money printing"?
If all central banks at some point reverse it, the net impact would be zero. So in that sense it is not "money printing."

3) So it could be "money printing"?
It could. If central banks are never able to reverse it. 

4) Ah-ha! So Gold will go up because of the money printing? 
It may. The amount of QE is still pretty small.

5) What! Are you nuts? Have you seen this chart?

 Yes and Yes. Have you seen this chart?

6) Not sure I get what you are saying. Can you be a bit more clear?

Sure. Total documented wealth is around 400 Trillion, but that misses a lot of shit. There are plenty of government owned assets and tons of assets not counted in this set. The total wealth of the people of earth could be in the range of 700 Trillion to 1.2 Quadrillion. 
Total QE is 18 trillion. You can shag that number till doomsday and if it gets a nice velocity and comes blazing out...it still has a lot of assets to choose from. With a multiplier of 1, it would increase the prices of all assets by 5%. With a multiplier of 20 it might double all asset prices. Yeah but your jerk-off dream of Gold $10,000 or $100,000 will not happen because of QE. 

7) But QE appears so large. Why does everyone get overwhelmed with this 4.5 Trillion on the Fed balance sheet? 
Because they compare to what it used to be and assume it is bad. Because they compare to total outstanding Government debt and assume it is bad. Nobody looks at all assets available for this money to chase.


8) So no inflation?
I did not say that. We will likely get a  good inflationary cycle soon.Full employment, trade protectionist policies and just the cyclical nature of inflation, will make it so. QE and low interest rates will likely make it worse. 

9) So would you buy Gold to protect yourself against this inflation?
No. REITS would be much better, Platinium is a wonderful choice as well. Why would I play 25% premium for an item like Gold vs Platinum when annually we mine 10X as much Gold vs Platinum, above ground we have 1 Billion ounces of Gold vs almost none for Platinum and Platinum has historically got me more tail than Gold. Perhaps even some Silver. But no Gold for me. This does not apply to trading positions. 

10) Do you think Central banks are suppressing the price of Gold?
Look at the chart below and draw your own conclusions. I am late for a scheduled 69.









96 comments:

  1. Thanks TDTR.
    From the choices of 1/funny 2/interesting 3/cool
    I choose 4/informative.
    Careful though - posts like this might incite people who call themselves "BIG" (as in Al) to request an interview "for lack of better terms".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He copied this of Avi Gilburt and made it his own. Take a look about Avi Gilburt's QE. The other day Avi posted under a Goldtent forum. Not cool for stealing someone else's work.

      Delete
  2. Gary Post author
    December 9, 2016 at 4:31 pm
    I never short stocks mining or otherwise. And we took profits at almost the exact top in August. I noted at the time that the miners were 75% above the 200 DMA and would need to cool off for awhile.

    The problem was he forgot to mention he backed up the truck in early September on 3X miners and got his ass handed to him and his subs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would like to run an analysis on his subs. How much money they have lost and how many stay with him past a year.

      Delete
  3. Ed Yardeni has a good PDF on Central bank balance sheets.

    Take a look at BOJ. Sick.

    http://www.yardeni.com/Pub/peacockfedecbassets.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thanks for creating this blog. Gary needs to be called out. I get banned from his website numerous times because as soon as I post evidence of his fraud and BS.

    First of all, Gary is totally reliant on subs for income. He always claims to get it right but if that was true why is he running a tout service and not making serious money with his trading. Second, Gary is 5 feet 1 inch tall. Dwarfism. I think this has played a big part in shaping Gary and giving him an inferiority complex. Thus, he masquerades as a stock market genius to make him feel better about his lack of height and shortcomings in other areas. Also, notice that Gary has never mentioned a wife or girlfriend despite being 48 a millionaire, champion rock climber and weightlifter, entrepreneur and stock market genius.

    I actually hired a PI to look into him. I have much much to share.

    Oh and this is the typical Gary Savage con:

    He will say the stock market has topped but I will never short the stock market. Then if the market goes lower, he says see I told you the market has topped. If it goes higher, he says see I told you to never short the market.

    With gold and cycles, his hubris takes it to another level. If gold does violate his madeup cycle BS that it should rally and ends up moving lower, he will say WELL, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PPT AND CENTRAL BANKS ARE MANIPULATING GOLD LOWER.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I noticed many inconsistencies in what Gary was saying. Had some nasty exchanges when I asked him about it? Mainly just curious.

      Delete
  5. Duck,

    Thanks for your take on QE. It's unusual and refreshing to find some one else interested in trading the gold complex who doesn't think QE was gold's answer to the promised land.

    My view on gold is oversold, and I'm modestly long GDXJ from Friday's close. My hope is that that any further immediate downside in gold will come pre-market Monday. My recognition that this may not be true accounts for the modest position. I do think the next rally in gold will only carry it to about a 55 in 16 day RSI (curve fitting). `

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Wes. Thank you. I don't have to sell newsletter fortunately otherwise it would not work out very well to tell people these things. I doubt everyone who says these things actually believes them...if they do, the world is way dumber than I thought :)

      Gold is not acting like it should and the COT tells me the risk is still high. Be careful, with the position.


      Delete
  6. I subscribe to Gary's site because he has the most subs. When he has them moving in unison they will effect the small PM markets, and if you're in the way, they will leave tire tracks up and down your backside. In this sense, Gary is the axe in the PM section, like it or not.

    An example is on Friday he had them selling the miners. You wouldn't have wanted to trade opposite this. $200/year is cheap for this info.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He sold the miners on Friday? When did he buy them?
      Lucky him for this situation where people pay him for his subscriber base. Self fulfilling prophecy.

      Delete
    2. Duck,

      As you have pointed out, he suggested them higher. He has had "optional to subs" stop points based on gold prices, but the stop on Friday was a "hard" stop for all subs to leave miners.

      He is anxious to reenter the miners and my suspicion is this call will come from Monday to Thursday (day after FOMC). This leaves the gun cocked so to speak and should be a warning to anyone short.

      He has said this call will depend on price action.

      Delete
    3. Without the earlier "optional" stops, I think Gary's subs would have easily taken out the November lows in both GDX and GDXJ on Friday.

      Hence my "buy on close" orders.

      Delete
  7. "Gary is the axe in the PM section, like it or not."

    The scope of the illusion is more widespread than I had imagined.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As best I can tell from being a long time subscriber, Gary has between 2000 and >5000 subs at any one time. If he's getting toward the low end he runs a special price ($5/month for example) to reload. This way his subs can, in mass, move the gold markets substantially.

      And move the gold market he does. This is the very definition of the "axe".

      If you've found someone who can move it more, list them. Otherwise, Gary is the axe in the gold market. Get used to it.

      Delete
    2. I'll name just one; I subscribed to The Dines Letter for just one year.
      Now that sucker could move a junior in a hurry.
      I quickly learned that if I made 20% in a day or two, to get the heck out, because it was a Dines Bump.

      But Gary? ... don't try to feed me that shit.

      Delete
    3. Ok let's not spiral this out of control. From the top of my blog "please keep the comments polite, unless you are criticising Gold Bugs...in which case go wild....doggie style." Reach deep inside to see the common thread of hating Gary's stupidity to reach an amicable middle ground.


      Delete
  8. Seems in his latest video. Gary has found the next Black Swan and also come out with the case that bad things happen in years that end with 7.

    Feel bad for any of his subs who swallow this BS.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Wes, that's not correct.

    A sub number that small, with total capital that small, can move price for maybe a second. That's a very general statement, but I'm saying generally it's meaningless.

    If you've ever seen meaningful traders using meaningful capital, then you know what price movement looks like.

    Gary is a crap trader, although he seems to be good at gay porn.

    ReplyDelete
  10. AJ AJ,

    I once met a waiter at a Waffle House named Charlie Charlie who said his mother stuttered.


    To be clear, when I talk about Gary recommending a trade, it's always a trade in gold miners. I don't ever recall him actually trading gold, the metal.

    I am also under the belief that he has subs who trade the futures market and monitor his calls, just as I do. I have no idea of the size of any accounts. My impression is that the PM miners complex is a relatively small market.

    I can assure you that regardless of the size of his sub base (my estimate is based on remarks made over the years and of course could be off) his recommendations move the miners markets substantially.

    By the way, when I first joined Gary's site his dog was named Toby.

    ReplyDelete
  11. A tiny meaningless guy like Gary can't move markets.

    I know that's a fact, because I've seen that 10000x Gary's sub capital can't move markets when it's wrong.

    Markets are bigger than anyone.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Interesting discussion. Even assuming all his subscribers had $50,000 each, that would be make it 100 million total. GDX traded 50 million shares at $20 or 1 Billion volume. SO 1/10th daily volume. Not chump change but decent. But GDX itself is an ETF, the underlying stocks have a market cap in excess of 20-40 Billion ( I have not looked recently, so I may be off base), so 100 million should have a very tiny impact. Now on something like GDXJ, that is where 100 million could definitely move the markets...short term. On a related note, very often seeking alpha recommended stocks have a nice bump on mentions by the smarter writers there. TK shipping mentioned recently has moved up 26% and stayed up since a reco. Of course, that is read by a much wider audience.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Duck,

      I guess at any given price and instant, the would be traders are split 50-50 between buy and sell. Otherwise, wouldn't the price change ?

      So, how much of an imbalance would it take to drive price in the majority direction is a question that makes my brain hurt to consider. I'm leaving that to others.

      But whatever the answer, Gary has the subs to do it.

      Delete
    2. Wes, sure an additional 100 million would change price. It is the net impact that I am talking about. We all "change" the price by buying and selling but the impact is marginal.
      I would not lose sleep over a few cents on a GDX trade and that is what the best case impact would be in my opinion. But you have observed this real time...so I will defer to your judgement.

      Delete
    3. Duck,

      I reconstructed Friday's trading and Gary's stop was triggered between 11:20 and 11:21 EST on Friday. I'll let each observer draw their own conclusion as to whether subsequent trading in the miners was likely influenced by this stop or not. I suggest you look at all the mutations of the miners (NUGT, JNUG, DUST, JDST, GDX and GDXJ).

      First of all, try to find a common reason for each of them to begin to sell off at this exact time (I don't think you can). The only thing they had in common exactly was that they were all covered by Gary's call.

      Then draw your own conclusion.

      Delete
    4. No letter writer could ever duplicate that waterfall at that exact time.

      Delete
  13. Oil up 4.5% from Friday close. Most be a painful event for those shorting it, even if you have stops as that thing gapped up.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Added a poll feature on the side. Would appreciate your votes.
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think there needs to be a "no opinion" or perhaps "one of the above" choice. I've never even considered that question.

      Delete
  15. The gold stop run is happening early, which I see as a positive development fr a long miner position. Of course, too much of a good thing would be not be welcomed.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Duck, whoa, you almost sounded like an elite for a second there :), totally unaware of the real life economic state of most people.

    Gary's average sub doesn't have anything near 50k, not even close.

    Elites never knew that so few people have even 1k liquid, much less 50k.

    But if you knew that most people have <1k savings, then you would've bet on both Brexit and Trump, and not been surprised by either.

    That's why it's so hard for Gary to get people to fork over $200, or whatever his sub fee is.

    Obviously 200 isn't anything to Wes because he throws it away to Gary, but 200 is actually an integer percentage of savings for most people, so they can't just throw it away like that.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AJ AJ, my rationale was that anyone having $1,000 or even $5,000 should not be spending $200 on a subscription. Also to emphasize that even at such large amounts, it would not move stocks too much.

      Delete
  17. I'd bet anyone that Gary has about 200-300 paying subs.

    I'd put money on it, if the bet is that Gary has no more than 1000 paying subs.

    Gary doesn't know gold, but he truly has no clue whatsoever about stocks, bonds, currencies.

    So the problem with that, is that gold has been down trending since 2011.

    For the past 5 years, a letter writer had to know stocks, bonds, currencies to make money long, or to make money shorting gold.

    If not, then after 5 years, most subs will leave.

    Also, no successful letter writer will ever praise himself that shamelessly in public, or will ever offer free year subscriptions. Both are tells that a trader needs money.

    So taking that into account, I'd guess that Gary had about 1500 subs in 2011, so I'd guess that he has around 200-300 left now.

    If you don't believe that, then pretend you didn't hear his sub number claims. Only look at his marketing actions and trading performance, and ask yourself if that matches with the sub numbers he claims. The reason you feel some mismatch, is because there is.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Good morning.
    I've taken a position in NUGT pre-market (7.54) for a range play.
    Still holding my TZA position and will look to either add or play TNA depending on price action.
    Happy trading.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good morning Max
      Looks like your if to a good start.
      Filled in my ibb 267.7, small position so easy to hold.

      Delete
    2. How are you this morning Doug?
      Haven't checked, did IBB fill the gap?

      Delete
    3. I am working out right now but had 267.61 as speculative lower right shoulder on hour or daily. Charts.

      Delete
    4. Didn't do anything else today. Closed down a few hundred.
      Jury is still out on ibb. txmd is hurting me the most. My horse is still my horse. It sure seems like they want dow 20k.

      Delete
  19. Bonds look weak again, but I'm expecting a near term bottom soon.
    Biotech also looking weak again.
    Oil looking strong. Considering trading UCO around my longer term USO position today.
    Okay off to pull a shot.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Sold 1/2 NUGT 7.9. Easy money.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Nice trading as usual, max and doug.

    Duck, what's a scheduled 69? I don't think it's what I first thought of. :)

    ReplyDelete
  22. Replies
    1. I think it's going higher, so will be stalking reentry.

      Delete
  23. Duck, you and max talked about oil a few days ago, so sorry if I'm repeating the same questions again here.

    If you were to use oil etfs, which do you like?

    Which oil stocks do you like?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I do not like oil EFTs because of the Roll. DBE and DBO are a bit better than USO because of
      intelligent rolling. DVE also splits betwen Brent, Gasoline, heating oil and West Texas so is slightly less volatile.

      I own ESV, NE, OIH, CPG and a smattering of Canadian Juniors, but my cost basis is a lot lower and I personally will add only on a pullback.

      Delete
    2. Avi wrote this, and Duck made it his own? QE?

      http://www.kereport.com/2016/12/09/absurdity-fallacy-correlation-dollar-euro/

      Delete
    3. Whoa dude. Get a grip. I did not delete any link.
      1) There are quite a few on the internet who think QE does not change inflation. Gary Schilling is one. Mike Shedlock is another.

      2) Second, my rationale above is because total world assets are 20-30X that of QE. Did Avi use that logic?

      3) I think Avi is an idiot who can say stuff like if GDX gets above $31 it will rally to $54, but if $19.80 does not hold it can go down to $8. I do not need to borrow anything from someone who says stuff like that.

      Delete
  24. You guys seem to be a bearish bunch on GDX. Not one thinks it has already bottomed. Granted, a sample size of 6 is not much but still.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Call me near term neutral with bearish bias but twitchy because I know the next move will likely be strong.

      Delete
    2. I abstained, which reflects my viewpoint. They may have short term bottomed. I'm very skeptical about bottomed in the longer term sense. Either way I'm teading them.

      Delete
    3. Are you monitoring for voter fraud?

      Delete
    4. How do you know the Russians didn't hack that poll?😄

      Delete
  25. Silver and miners may have bottomed in late Nov.

    ReplyDelete
  26. I have a stupid question - what is roll and contango?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/understanding-etfetn-decay/597736
      Let me know if that helps.

      Delete
  27. Back from snow blowing. Looks like I missed a whole lot of nothing.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Looks like we might be winding up for a drop down to the 2244 area in SPX.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Thanks a lot Duck, that's the first time I've ever read a good explanation of contango and backwardation.

    You're a smart duck. And your oil trade is moving very well.

    What do you mean by roll vs intelligent roll? You're saying that some etfs roll futures in a way that more accurately matches the underlying price?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The credit goes to Fool.Com. They write some good articles.

      Intelligent Roll is essentially minimizing rolls in times of steep contango.
      For example let's say January 2017 trades at $51 and February trades at $54 and December trades at $56. USO will buy the January Futures. Then sell Jan and buy Feb and so on. DBO will buy the December 2017 futures straight off. Assuming by December 2017 oil is at $65. You will make a profit in DBO. Whereas USO would have multiple $2-3 losses with each roll and you will lose holding USO even though oil went up during your holding period. That is crux of the idea although there are lot of permutations to this (for example a hurricane could send oil into backwardation benefitting USO while DBO does not) but generally DBO comes out ahead. from 2009 DBO:USO ratio is up 65% due to outperformance of DBO.

      Delete
  30. I see, thanks.

    Does DBE buy similarly to DBO?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just wondering
      Anybody ever try shorting dust/nugt or similar as a pair trade? Since they both lose value with time, it seems like a no brainer but there is probably something I don't know.

      Delete
    2. Does not work very well.
      1) Very hard to borrow

      2) Constant adjustment requirement to maintain delta neutral status. Let's say you are short 10,000 of each. Next day NUGT goes up 15% and DUST goes down 15%. Now you are Net short $3,000 ($11,500-$8,500), so you have to adjust. Very hard to do in my opinion, but if you can manage...go for it.

      Delete
    3. Thanks duck
      I went back to12/6/2010
      Nugt close was 3900
      Dust close was 1022
      Both would be very profitable if there were no other fees and a trader could handle the drawdown or hedge it.
      Even as gdx sits in tight range right here, a long pair trade seems like it could be profitable if there was a big move as the winner would gain by increasing percentages.

      Delete
  31. Is there some reason that etfs don't just match underlying price, without any futures contango or backwardation?

    Both contango and bw favor worse traders, who need a lot of time to make buying or selling decisions.

    It would make more sense to favor the opposite - to add an extra reward for the few traders who buy and sell on extremes, when it's very unnerving and you have to force yourself to decide fast.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Well, what I wrote isn't totally accurate.

    I guess it's more that contango favors short term traders over buy and hold investors.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Pull up a chair and grab some popcorn.

    Gary has a new Technical analysis.

    Years that end in 7. Years that markets topped. Last time I checked 2000 didn't end in a 7.

    He's calling he top in the bond market. He will watch it on FMOC and by the reaction of ONE DAY he will know if the 30 year bond market bubble has topped.

    Oh, he mentioned NASDAQ 20000 and the dollar will top. So get ready for the gold bull to resume.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJwUIUp5sXU

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Never mind that 1977, 1967, 1957 and so on did not produce anything. It is amazing that people throw shit out with a sample size of 3. Clearly basic stats was not a mandatory course for Market Newsletter writers.

      Delete
  34. A long play on the 20yr looks very interesting here. Today could. have been the short term bottom. I'm not going to predict the longer term picture at the moment, that seems like a fools game.
    Using TLT as a proxy, one could take a position and hold it until the gap around about 130 gets filled. This would correspond with the lower side of the previous up channel. If TLT fails to break above that resistance area and heads down, one could assume the Secular bond bull might be over. A break below the 119 area would pretty much confirm that. Just a thought.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Duck, if you are true to yourself, you should not have deleted my message with links earlier saying that you are copying Avi Gilburt's QE and made it your own. Why complain about Gary, this makes you worse than him.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your link is above.
      If you cannot see that we used completely different logic than it is your loss. Go hang somewhere else.

      Delete
  36. Max, I think that's an excellent thought about TLT.

    I've been trying to decide if now or a little higher may be a short term top in TBT.

    So you think the short term top in TBT is around here, and that the 10 year likely won't make it to 2.75?

    ReplyDelete
  37. I was pretty convinced about a long term bond top in July.

    But it's only Dec, and everyone agrees about a long term bond top now, so something is wrong.

    Maybe TLT will retrace to almost July levels again, or maybe bonds will stay range bound for a while, or maybe the real long term bond top hasn't actually been hit yet.

    Duck mentioned that his TLT calls were his only underwater trade, but I've been wondering if his TLT trade may turn out much more nicely than I think, and that I may regret not getting my TBT percent allocation a lot lower than now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am itching...bones to balls to double down on TLT calls.
      Yeah I am a poet.

      Delete
    2. Yes,

      So was John Donne :

      No man is an island...... any mans death diminishes me, because I am involved in Mankinde; And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; It tolls for thee..

      Hemingway, not so much.

      Delete
    3. Thanks for that. I did not know that came from John Donne. I remembered it from long back from Hemingway. You learn something new everyday.

      Delete
  38. Wes, very nice.

    If you can dream, and not make dreams your master,
    If you can think, and not make thoughts your aim
    If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
    And treat those two impostors just the same...

    - If (Kipling)

    Other than Emily Dickinson's zero to the bone line, I don't know any bones to balls poem though.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I heard that poem while my sister was watching a soap called Santa Barbara. There was no internet back then and all I heard were few lines. I loved it so much that I went around asking everyone I knew if they had heard of this. I found it soon enough and it is my favourite. My sister used her calligraphy skills to write it out for me and framed it for me on my birthday. Best present ever.

      Delete
  39. It seems you did not allow my last comment probably since you did not want someone to point out that Avi is highly respected worldwide, and has made many astounding market predictions. He is far from an "idiot," and I suggest you learn what you clearly do not know about his analysis before you call him an idiot.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ok for fuck's sake...I am not blocking any comment yet. Although the next person to suggest that will be blocked.

      Second, I can call anyone, anything I like. It is my blog. You can go elsewhere.

      Delete
    2. You can do what you wish . . but it means you are just wrong.

      How someone can opine about something they clearly do not understand is beyond me. But, it simply shows your own ignorance . . or, dare I say "idiocy."

      Delete
  40. BTW - the one thing we do agree on is that Gary is completely clueless about markets. He guesses more than anything else.

    ReplyDelete
  41. In case any of you are wondering why I think this guy is a moron ( and I could write an article solely on this) here is Avi making some sensational predictions.
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/4002120-sentiment-speaks-silver-heading-1000
    "Well, many of you may have read my analysis on mining stocks targeting 15,000 in the HUI within 50 years. My expectation for silver is no less "impossible" or "ridiculous." Based upon the same methodology we used to identify the tops and bottoms in gold and the HUI/GDX, silver will likely be heading toward the $1000 an ounce region within the next 50 years."
    My wave analysis predicts $1,250 in the next 45 years so I am definitely more bullish than him.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do you even understand his analysis to call him a moron? I guess you would have called him a moron back in 2011 when he was looking for a correction before the market topped and was targeting the 1400 in gold first, and then the 1000 region if 1400 broke. Real moronic call there, huh?

      Why is he a moron? Because he has made a 45 year prediction? Do you realize that Elliott himself made a 70 year prediction using this method calling for a 70 year bull market back in 1941? Was Elliott a moron too? Real moronic prediction there by Elliott too, huh?

      Again, how do you have the gall to opine about that which you clearly do not understand? Have you studied EW in as much depth as Avi that you can provide an equally reasoned or supportable opinion? Do you know EW enough to know if Avi is wrong? I think not. And anyone who tries to opine about that which they know nothing are the true morons here.

      Delete
    2. "Do you even understand his analysis to call him a moron?" Yes
      "I guess you would have called him a moron back in 2011 when he was looking for a correction before the market topped and was targeting the 1400 in gold first, and then the 1000 region if 1400 broke. Real moronic call there, huh?" Actually yes. He leaves himself an out in every analysis. In simple terms every time he says it will go up....or it could go down. My dog predicts better than that. He has made some horridly wrong calls when he chose a side without leaving an out. Here i just one. http://seekingalpha.com/article/1242241-did-gold-just-bottom "I want to warn those that are attempting to short silver here, as we approach the target zone, the possibility exists that once we hit it we can see a VERY strong reversal . . . remember, there is VERY bearish sentiment on the metals, and the next low will likely provide us with a positive divergence on the daily chart. The top of that target zone is just under 28, so please be cautious with your shorts. This is now becoming a dangerous game to short silver."
      In fact that the best ufcking time to short silver as it crashed thrown $28 all the way to $18.
      "Again, how do you have the gall to opine about that which you clearly do not understand? Have you studied EW in as much depth as Avi that you can provide an equally reasoned or supportable opinion?" I don't study voodoo either, does not mean I do not know it is crap.

      EW helps people set stops and there is nothing wrong with that. Beyond that, it is useless. If you feel it is useful...good for you. Use it.

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  42. Avi is another incompetent average name. There are thousands of these guys.

    Let's see how many crap traders we can all name, so we can be as unhelpful as possible.

    If it's 50 years out, then I'd guess silver would be about $100.

    I favor any asset in a long term bull, but that's no reason to blow it out of any realistic proportion.

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  43. AJ, with regard to bonds, The price action today combined with the extremely extended conditions made me think it's possible we have started or close to a bounce that would test the lower boundary of the uptrend.
    I have no position in TLT or TMF at the moment, so I guess that gives you an idea of my commitment as of yet.

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  44. Market watcher has got the dubious honor of the first person I will remove comments off.
    Anyone here have any issues switching to Disqus?
    Allows blocking a lot easier.

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  45. Yeah, unfortunately blocking could be useful. If you do, please throw a link up because I am one lazy mofo.

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