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Friday, December 9, 2016

Portfolio Update

Covered 1/4 more TECK at 23.20.
Shorted at 26.44.


Long term positions on oil stocks looking good this morning.
Gold sector looks like it is still struggling. I am still not interested on the long side.




Bonus: A lot of traders are going to be wondering how they could have been so stupid, according to Gary. Very unlike how they feel now for missing the last two months of bull.










68 comments:

  1. Looking to short the indices...will update if what I think is a good setup, presents itself.

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  2. Note the symbol change on TECK. Originally shorted as TCK.

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  3. IBB showing island reversal as it sits. Hung up at its upper trendline. Ideally, a pullback to 267.61 that holds sets up a couple of nice patterns. Either way, it looks good at the moment.Gold continues to regurgitate. Lower trendline and band line up at 1022. Steel is letting the air out as anticipated. SnP no surprises either. My horse continues to be a horse.

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  4. Duck, it's your blog, but I don't get this Gary talk.

    Gary is just another average joe scrub, just trying to scrape by. Trying to pay his mortgage and put food on his table, just like millions of other Americans.

    If Gary was a known trader, then absolutely I would support your speaking out that he's a sham, because then you would be saying something informative and surprising.

    But Gary was never acclaimed or known as a trader in the first place. Gary never had a good trading reputation in the first place. No one has ever heard of him.

    You're free to say what you wish, but it kind of cheapens your blog to mention meaningless average traders so much. Who's Michael Pento, I've never heard of traders so average and incompetent, and I don't care to hear about any more average names like this.

    On the other hand, if you or anyone knows the name of any hidden gem newsletter writer, who isn't well known but is actually incredibly talented, then please mention that writer's name repeatedly, because that would be a big help.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The primary purpose is to invalidate Gold bug arguments. Michael Pento is a Gold Bug. Gary is a retarded Gold bug (that would be a Tautology) .
      The secondary purpose is to help people see the fraudulent claims of Gary Savage. As I have said previously, he blows up account with 3X funds and claims to be a better trader than Paul Tudor Jones. I have nothing to sell, so I am interested in my blog serving these purposes. Sure, people would love a person who is above the fray, talks clean trading and stays out of other people’s business. That is not me. In case you missed it, read the disclaimer on top I am so fucking opinionated)

      Delete
  5. Out of nugt 7.79
    Piss poor trade. Kept chase sell down and finally capitulated. Fortunately a small trade.

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  6. I'm liking the Stillwater (SWC) buy-out; if it goes through.

    SAN DIEGO, Dec. 9, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Shareholder rights law firm Johnson & Weaver, LLP has launched an investigation into whether the board members of Stillwater Mining Company (NYSE: SWC) breached their fiduciary duties in connection with the proposed sale of the Company to Sibanye Gold Limited. Stillwater Mining engages in the development, extraction, processing, smelting and refining of platinum group metals (PGMs)."

    http://tinyurl.com/hzx29xp

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  7. I put a small limit order on ibb @267.7 on speculation. Bigger picture has huge downside to it if this junk cant get going so my stop needs to be honored.

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  8. Duck, I'll take the bad with the good. :) I always support free speech.

    Nice call to you and max on your timing of gold weakness.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks AJ AJ.
      We both reached that conclusion at around the same time. The action looks so bad, it might actually be good soon though.

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    2. I agree with you again there.

      I could be wrong, but if there's going to be a flushdown in gold, I'm not sure it'll come right now, with this setup.

      I think there will be more bouncing around in the bottoming, but I still think there will be some decent countertrend move up.

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    3. AJ, I'm not saying you won't be right, but what are you basing that on?

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  9. Just got back from skiing and things are looking good. Got a fill on my LABU order I placed this moring at 36.24. Also got filled on my TZA order at 106.84. I guess technicals really do work. I immediatley sold 1/2 my LABU 37.04 and all my TZA at 17.84.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That was a brave trade to leave on and walk away from.
      I do that a lot myself but not from extended levels like this.
      Did you bid the hourly Bollinger for this trade?

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    2. No. With my LABU order I played a gap fill or reversion to yesterdays close. With TNA it was a play on a drop to what appeared to be the nearest decent support from yesterdays action. Definitely a little risky and certainly I was lucky. It's funny how I could have sat here all day and probably got it wrong, but instead I walked away and it worked.

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  10. My TNA trade knocks off about 3/4 of the losses I'm sitting on in my TZA short position I am stubbornly holding. Markets looking weaker today, but I'm not adding to TZA as of now. I would not be surprised to see another thrust up early next week. In fact I'm stalking a potential reentry into TNA at the moment.

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  11. Looks like a trend down day in the miners.

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  12. Both Momentum and Stoch are during down on GLD.

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  13. SPXU is disappointing me being more then1/2% lower then spike lows yesterday.

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    Replies
    1. Shorting is never easy. I still think we drop at least a couple % by Xmas, but what do I know.

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    2. I'm presently playing both sides, this way, like any good Elliot wave forecaster, I can't be wrong.

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  14. Looks like we might have some more goldtard pain.

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    Replies
    1. If nugt breaks down, it's going to be a huge move.

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  15. As for the blind leading the blind, that was quite a timely post by Gary.

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  16. I just noticed we printed a new 6mo low in GLD

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  17. Replies
    1. It's holding above yesterday's close, so I'm still mildly positive on the long side, but not enough to hold.

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    2. Leaving my bid on inn for Ext hours. Small size tho.

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  18. Replies
    1. I was targeting 108.24, but lost my nerve.

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    2. Worked off over 85% of TZA deficit.

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    3. Good work Max
      Those trades you walk away from and come back richer are fun.

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    4. In retrospect, I couldn't have been luckier with my timing in regards to LABU.
      I guess the trading gods had mercy on me today after pissing all over me and my Russell short yesterday. That probably means more pain on Monday.
      Have a great weekend!

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    5. Another good day for me thanks to my horse.
      My mule (SPXU) is snitching my profits though.
      Good weekend to all.

      Delete
  19. Max, I fully admit that I invest very strangely, mostly based on subjective sentiment and long term chart patterns.

    I was told that intuition is the worst possible way to invest.

    But I decided that if I made money, then I'd keep doing it. If I lost money, I'd stop.

    I haven't had a reason to stop yet. :)

    I explain that though, because anything I say or buy is very arbitrary. I have no short term sense, which is why you, Duck, and other traders are so helpful to me.

    So to answer your post of why I think gold may not crash right now, is because I'm not sure bond shorts can make it much past here on the first try without some pullback, and maybe even more pullback than I think.

    I was waiting to hear talk about TBT to the moon and gold 1050, before I committed more capital long gold.

    This present timing is also around an 8 year gold low, and I'm not sure gold will make it so easy for shorts to just hold in a straight line from 1370. I shorted miners at gold 1370 when it made me anxious, and sold at gold 1307. But when you and Duck sold this bounce, I wanted to short, so I'm not sure that now will be an easy clean sell on downside.

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    1. Okay, thanks. Yeah, no way I would short or long gold here, except for maybe a scalp play on a very tight leash. Good luck and enjoy this brief respite.

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    2. See, your posts like this are very helpful to me :)

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    3. AJ AJ...your bond sentiments echo mine but so far my 122 TLT calls have been my only losing position.

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    4. Bonds are at extreme levels, but so are most markets these days. You know what they say about rationality and markets.

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    5. Irrational exuberance, best trade ever
      If your on the right side of it that is πŸ˜„

      Delete
  20. COT report.
    Gold decent improvement.
    Silver ...deterioration.
    I am not impressed by the Small specs being unmoved by Silver's decline.

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    Replies
    1. Is that right? Care to post the decline in small spec positions and save us some work. Thanks.

      Delete
  21. GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-088691
    FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 12/06/16 |
    --------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
    NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
    --------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
    LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    (CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES) OPEN INTEREST: 393,524
    COMMITMENTS
    227,675 91,295 33,973 86,237 241,181 347,885 366,449 45,639 27,075

    CHANGES FROM 11/29/16 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -12,137)
    -2,056 13,134 -3,762 -6,391 -19,270 -12,209 -9,898 72 -2,239

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  22. SILVER - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-084691
    FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 12/06/16 |
    --------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
    NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
    --------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
    LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 TROY OUNCES) OPEN INTEREST: 159,337
    COMMITMENTS
    81,495 22,130 8,603 43,081 118,821 133,179 149,554 26,158 9,783

    CHANGES FROM 11/29/16 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 2,711)
    2,010 1,685 -441 1,175 1,470 2,744 2,714 -33 -3

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  23. Basically no change in Silver small Specs.
    Gold large specs declined nicely but small specs up.
    http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm

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    Replies
    1. Thanks.
      Now I'm no expert in interpreting the COT, but the way I read it is that small specs increase their long positions by 72 and decreased shorts by 2239 while big specs went the other way. So if we assume the small specs are the dumb money, this is negative for gold price. Am I missing something?

      Delete
    2. Sorry i responded at the wrong spot. See my answer below.

      Delete
  24. Duck,

    I have just found your site, so my first comment may be off topic.

    I am quite interested in finding someone professing a knowledge of the gold market that is willing to acknowledge the the Fed's QE (in any of it's forms) did not create any additional money (cash, bonds, etc.) for the public sector sector of the economy. Are you that person ?

    I have always looked at QE as a straight asset swap between the Fed and the public sector, but I haven't found a gold site that doesn't refer to QE as "money printing" as though this resulted in a flood of additional assets for the public sector of the economy. The Fed bought bonds for cash, and since both are forms of money, no net public assets were created ( of course I acknowledge that this resulted in lower interest rates, the Fed's initial intent.).

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    Replies
    1. Welcome.
      Not sure if I am someone "professing a knowledge of the gold market". I have traded the sector and because I have been able to trade it better than most other sectors without even remotely putting in manipulation into my models I think there is no significant amount of manipulation if any. On QE my point of view is very similar to yours, but not quite.
      You mind if I address it in a separate post? Probably this weekend.

      Delete
    2. I would kind of agree with your statement WES. It's about electronic balance sheets, not actual printing of money. I believe the problem is the increase in banking reserves this creates, which can affect money supply.
      As to the manipulation issue, although I would agree that's not by any means a primary driver of PM prices, but I believe Deutsche Bank was just settled a gold manipulation case and they and a number of others are up against the wall in a silver manipulation suit.

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    3. Okay, I'm pretty sure the above is not actually grammatical English, but you get the point.

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    4. I'll also add that there is plenty of evidence of large orders in the futures markets, during off hours when liquidity is low, running stops. This can affect the technicals in the short run.
      I believe there's a difference between acknowledging the corruption and collusion in the markets (and all facets of business) in the name of profit, and blaming your lousy prognostications or trading record on it.

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    5. maxdog,

      The banks have never been constrained by reserves. They are like a seller of apples(loans) that have 10 apples on display and sell 3 a day. Increasing reserves would allow them to display 20 apples, but if nothing else changes they will still only sell 3.

      The display (reserves) was never the problem. The problem is demand, or lack of.

      Delete
    6. Well actually Wes, They are constrained by reserves with a multiplier, But I would agree that money supply expansion is not a problem now with the tighter credit market, through regulation and failure of many lenders after the credit bubble imploded, as well as a weak housing market and wage stagnation.

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    7. Wes, I just want to be clear that I am not taking exception with your point. Fractional reserve system aside, I often find myself making the same argument with the whole money printing notion. We are clearly in a deflationary environment and the only inflation is latent.

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    8. Maxdog. Your COT explanation is correct. HOwever, in the case of Gold Large Specs, the slightly less dumb money, decreased their long positions by a decent amount, so overall I consider this a positive for Gold. I did not mention it but there was some massive shorting of JPY for large specs.....which helped paint an overall improvement in the picture for Gold...for me.

      Delete
  25. I know the saying you guys are talking about - markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

    But what if markets seem generally rational to you, and you don't want to stay too irrationally solvent for too long?

    Then you'd wonder if 40% was enough trimming in TBT, and if a rational pullback might become more irrational than you think.

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  26. i think I know why gary is always wrong. When he's making charts and surfing gay porn he gets confused which way to draw the lines.

    Next time he should remember to close his porn tab before he posts a screenshot.

    https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/wp-content/uploads/Untitled.jpg

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    Replies
    1. Wow, that is just irresponsible. NO wonder his subs are getting shafted.

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  27. Lol. That is a classic SFGiantsFan. Thanks!

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