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I will not be responsible for any material that is found on this site or at the end of links that I may post on this blog site. Mistakes may happen from time to time. URLS and domains may change hands. If you need financial advice or someone to hold your hand while you make the trade, please find another site.

Because the information on this blog are based on my personal opinion and gosh I am so fucking opinionated, it should NOT be considered professional financial investment advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional, preferably both and in that order. My thoughts and opinions will also change from time to time as I learn and accumulate more knowledge,or my meds wear out, or my post coital euphoria passes.

Feel free to comment on my ideas or ask questions in the comments section for the blog entries. Please remember that this is a blog, and you do not need to agree with everything or anything I write (except I am very needy when it comes to my looks...so you have to say nice things). I reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason (abusive, profane, rude, etc.) so please keep the comments polite, unless you are criticising Gold Bugs...in which case go wild....doggie style.

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Monday, December 5, 2016

The Archduke of Gold Bugs

Michael Pento is an interesting one. Just like most Gold Bugs....he is convinced that any given moment we are one pubic hair away from Armageddon. And we are talking thin, wispy, Caucasian pubic hair, not Asian or African-American.   But he is just a bit more mainstream and gets more interviews on CNBC and airtime on more grounded networks, so does more damage with his "views". In his latest interview he reaches two dramatic conclusions.

1) We will have a crash in global economic/stock market crash 2017
2) Helicopter money will start soon after. 

Where have we heard "crash" predictions from this man before?

1)      Uh 2011... titled Train wheels off...Crash Helmets on.

2)      In 2012  with a video titled "Financial Collapse is inevitable."
  
3)      And in 2013 The bond market is headed for a meltdown, and that collapse may bring down the governments of Japan, Europe and the United States, says Michael Pento, president of Pento Portfolio Strategies.

4)      And in 2014..."Signs of next stock market crash is rapidly approaching"...yeah I noticed the grammar too.

5)      And in 2015.."Today one of the greats (really?? Greats?) in the business warned King World News that the world will see a shocking crash in 2015.  He also warned this crash will bring with it enormous chaos and crisis as it engulfs the entire planet. Michael Pento:  Investors need to be strategically allocated.  Their portfolios have to be prepared for volatility like we’ve never seen before because government manipulations have caused the market to repeatedly lose half of its value.  That’s what happened in the year 2000.  That’s what happened in the year 2008.  And we are due for just such another crash


Don’t know about you guys but I stocked up on the canned food.  I mean what are the chances this guy is a clueless moron who says the same thing over and over again?"




57 comments:

  1. Another side splitter. Keep em comin. Really though, these gold members make it easy.
    As for tomorrow, gold still looks like crap, but price action in miners tells me a relief rally may still be on the table.
    The plan remains the same. Buy weakness in miners, silver and the Russell with the caveat that things may change by AM.
    Hope to pickup the discussion on fear and loathing in the gold market tomorrow as well.

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    1. Thanks.
      Mr. Pento seems to forget his previous predictions every time he appears on air.

      Gold still looks like crap, you are right. My fear is Mr.Modi. He is an extremely stupid man. This article here shows that he is interfering with the Gold market and may do more silly things. http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/no-tax-on-ancestral-jewellery-gold-purchased-from-disclosed-income-1632757?pfrom=home-lateststories

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    2. Good morning my fine feathered friend.
      I'm not sure why you are fearful, or was that just an expression, meaning you are uncertain. The positions you posted are relatively conservative, unless you devoted a large part of your portfolio to them. I will never understand why anyone would allocate anything approaching a significant amount to trades in the precious metals markets. Gold in particular is one of the most complex and hard to predict assets unless it's in a strong trend and even then you never know. There are so many better places to make money 95% (number extracted from ass) of the time.
      Btw, with all your arm twisting, I finally stopped over at SMT, something I never thought I would do again. What a hot mess. Talk about clueless sheeple who should never be managing their own money. Like a big hand holding, bed wetting circle jerk of inchoate reasoning. I actually felt a twisted sense of sympathy.

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    3. PM total long position if "put to me" would be 20%. But I hate taking big hits....a Modi Gold blockade could send gold down 10% GDX down 30%....highly unlikely but this guy makes some of the worst politicians look smart.

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  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  3. Replies
    1. Do you ever hold 3x funds overnight? Just curious

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    2. I keep them on a short leash. Talk about decay and risk.

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    3. To further answer your query, If you noticed from my posts, I held part of NUGT and TNA overnight. My style is to hold a core in most of my positions and trade around that. The length of time is dictated by the volatility and strength of the trend. 2x and 3x are generally held for much shorter times than 1x. I might also use something like UCO to trade around my USO position.

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    4. I am using TNA to trade around my relatively long term SPY position.

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  4. added trading position in USO 11.24

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  5. Had to takeout trash, a ten minute ordeal down my 1/4 mile long driveway. Narrowly missed TNA fill at 95.94. Order removed.

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  6. Duck,
    Alex sees oil headed to $38 now. December/January are months oil likes to see a yearly low. How likely is $38 before your $70 in this coming year?

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    1. A kind word to describe Alex would be tri-polar.
      He changes his mind often before I finish reading his post.
      I am not sure what the value of someone who operates on such short time frames is to me. So I ignore him.

      In the last few weeks he has got multiple bottom calls wrong on Gold, multiple top calls wrong on USD, multiple top calls wrong on SPY. He even tried to dissuade me from my long EUR/USD which turned out to be a great trade.

      So in conclusion I give his opinion less value than Gary's. I think he (and Victor are about to get their balls ripped by the next stage of this oil bull. You are free to do as you think fit.

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    2. Hope that did not sound snide. Tone does not come across on email/comments.

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    3. Fair enough. No doubt you have been on a roll lately. I have always wondered why day traders and scalpers ever post their trades on a forum. I don't see how that benefits anyone. Thanks for the reply.

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    4. I don't see how it benefits one less than long term trading posts. It demonstrates the same things in a shorter time frame. Unless you are looking to be guided, any example of trading should be beneficial to your knowledge base. Especially unsuccessful ones.

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    5. I think it is harder to keep up with someone on shorter time frames but as long as they post their entries and exits it works. The key is realizing the success rate and the time frame of the person. I, never take on intra-day trades. Most of mine are in the 12 week range but if I change my mind I can be out sooner. Key problem I have with Alex is that for someone making a call out for 2-3 months, I find it strange that he changes his mind so often. Maybe it works for him. I knew another guy....very successful trader, but he needed to justify his short term trading with long term rationale. So he would say for example.....Fed is stimulative...stocks will go up 20% over the next year and take a long futures position in E-minis...and 2 hours later...he would sell and go short and explain that stocks are in a bear market.

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    6. I believe that is about prognostication and ego, not really trading. Unless of course your selling a service, in which case it's about money. People love a Guru.

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  7. As a note on my trading perspective, I feel short term trading is essential for long term success. I trade for a living, having been retired for over 23 yrs now. I have found becoming to reliant on long term prognostication is problematic.

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  8. Replies
    1. That's great you have been successful as a short term trader. Kudos. I'm more interested in discussing intermediate and longer term trends. For example, there were numerous MACD monthly buy signals generated at the end of last month in base metals, materials, small caps, energy, financials, etc. Some fairy rare signals that indicate we could melt up for years (if history is a guide) after breaking out of a multi-year consolidation. Figured I'd throw that up for discussion if there are any takers.

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    2. I agree, and would add that, even more importantly in my opinion, sentiment as measured by AAII, if you can believe it, has crossed a threshold indicative of a longer term strong bullish move in the general market. On the other hand we are in uncharted territory with regard to a bull move without a single bear (as defined by 20% or > correction). I think opportunity cost is a concept either unfamiliar to, or forgotten by, many traders.

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  9. I will further elaborate on my dichotomy of trading methods (obviously too much time on my hands in this slow market). If one were to take any chart and concatenate the significant short term movements (say 1% or >) into a single smooth curve, the chart would become exponentially exaggerated. By only trading long term, you are missing 90% (another figure extracted from butt) of the price movement. If trading is your primary source of income, why ride the roller coaster hoping and praying. Short term trading is simply a way of locking in gains (or cutting losses) on a shorter time frame.

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  10. A lot of short term scalping, since today looks to be range bound after yesterdays impulsive move up.

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  11. My goal here, besides an alternative to masturbation, is to engender an exchange of trading ideas. I am posting my trades to present some of those ideas and their execution, as well as to establish some credibility. I could only post my longer term trades, but that would, er well, really limit the dialogue. I am all for discussing greater macro economic, market fundamentals and technical theory. Besides computer science, I do have a degree in economics, although I'm certainly no expert. The thing is, It's really all about making money for me. Like a job. Otherwise, I'd be off skiing, cycling, hiking, working on my old historic house or better yet, getting laid.
    So come on, share some trading ideas.

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    1. That's a little attempt at humor, you know, referencing what is touted to be one of the biggest uses of the internet.

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    2. I know :)
      "If all the porn sites were taken down, there would be only one website left and it would be called Bring back the porn." Scrubs...

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  12. Replies
    1. Nothing like replying to your own comment. To explain my previous two trades, I executed the latter because it was my target based on the chart and my concept of a range bound day. I executed the earlier trade because of overbought conditions on short term oscillators.

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  13. As for longer term trading. I expect to be unloading between 25 and 50% of my SPY position in the near future, since we approaching overbought conditions. My target is 224-225.

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  14. Maxdog, I don't trade over days, but I like seeing your trades :)

    Is spy your largest position?

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    1. Yes, about 28% of my portfolio. Then again I'm nearly 50% in cash most of the time, excepting what I consider very high probability opportunity periods.

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  15. Looks like some more impulsive price action in the smallies. Caution is warranted though, as we are getting short term extended. Longer term I'm quite bullish for now.

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  16. In another sizable position of mine oil(WTI), I am targeting 58.

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  17. Maxdog, do you have an approximate time that you're expecting oil 58?

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    1. If we can break above 52, I would guess in short order, as measured by days. I would guess a fairly impulsive move. At that point I will probably unload some in expectation of some retracement.

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  18. I see I got a fill on GDX at 21.14. I will try to hold this one for a little while, on a short leash. If this rally fails to materialize, we could see 18 followed by 15 fairly quickly.

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  19. Targets for GDX 23.5 followed by 26 if that resistance breaks.

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  20. I'd think there should be some countertrend move in gold first, even if price is heading lower.

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    1. Yes, that is what I'm betting on for the moment

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  21. Wow, I really misjudged the action in the Russell today.

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  22. Well gold still looks like crapolla, but for those long this piece of shit, there's still hope this consolidation leads to a bounce. In fact I would go as far as to say a pretty decent chance.

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  23. Sold USO trading position 11.28. this is a small position compared to my overall holding. I sold because it closed near low of day. I am still intermediate term bullish.

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  24. Correction; because USO closed below low of yesterday.

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  25. Sold 10% SPY 221.54. This was a trading position held since 219.24.

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  26. Intermediate term, I'm still quite bullish on general market. Short term, a little give back might be in order.

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